Here are the absurdly early predictions from CIA Radio's season finale, in which myself, Ms. Gee, and Mr. Williams picked all the division winners, the conference finals, and the Stanley Cup champion. This way in case any of us are right we have RECORDED PROOF~! that we did, in fact, call it first.
I got Quinlan's off the phone with him a few hours later. And swear to christ he did in fact pick the Islanders to win the Atlantic and go to the Eastern Conference finals. He wasn't kidding. He really believes this will happen.
I should also note that we did all these predictions under the assumption that Kovalchuk is going to the Kings. I still think that's going to happen until he officially signs with another team, but should it not I would imagine our next round of predictions on the eve of the regular season will look very different. But considering 3 out of 4 of us picked them to win the Cup next year (oops, spoiled it!) it looks like we all agree: adding Kovalchuk to the Kings will make them a superpower. Not that they're far off to begin with; in their excellent posts comparing the "core" of the Blackhawks to the other big Western Conference teams, the Kings were the team that Second City Hockey was most worried about. It'll be interesting as we get closer to the season to see if our consensus matches up with the consensus of the rest of the hockey world.
Alright, here's all the picks. And then after I make my Cup pick, I'll tell you why I DIDN'T pick some other teams.
Atlantic Division
John, Emily, & Sean- Penguins
Quinlan- Islanders
Central Division
John & Emily- Blackhawks
Sean & Quinlan- Red Wings
Northeast Division
John & Quinlan- Bruins
Emily- Canadiens
Sean- Sabres
Northwest Divison
John & Quinlan- Canucks
Emily & Sean- Avalanche
Southeast Division
John, Emily, Quinlan & Sean- Capitals
Pacific Divison
John & Emily- Kings
Sean & Quinlan- Sharks
Eastern Conference Finals
John- Penguins over Flyers
Emily & Sean- Penguins over Capitals
Quinlan- Capitals over Islanders
Western Conference Finals
John- Kings over Red Wings
Emily- Kings over Blackhawks
Sean- Red Wings over Avalanche
Quinlan- Kings over Canucks
Stanley Cup Finals
John & Emily- Kings over Penguins
Sean- Penguins over Red Wings (god help me if I have to watch that shit again)
Quinlan- Kings over Capitals
So that's everybody's picks. Really quick, now I'm gonna say why I DON'T think these teams will win the Cup:
Blackhawks- Might as well start with the defending champs. Lack of depth, Pat Kane looking like he's not going to be sober by training camp, etc. will all combine to do in the Hawks, probably in the second round. But don't worry, Hawks Nation, they'll be back.
Penguins- My Eastern Conference winners due to their much-improved defense, I don't think they have the goal-scoring to compete with LA, especially on the wings. Crosby is great and all but last year proved that one man can't do it alone. And as great as their much-improved defense is, they still don't have that one "superstar" defender like Drew Doughty.
Red Wings- My Western Conference runners-up, I just think they're too old to get past the young, hungry Kings. I honestly see this year going pretty similar to last year for them; an OK regular-season hurt by injuries, gets hot down the stretch but not hot enough to catch the Hawks for the Central, etc. Difference this year is I think the team pulls closer together to try and get Nik Lidstrom one more Cup before he retires next off-season, so that gets them past the second-round and back into the Conference Finals this time. But no further.
Flyers- My Eastern Conference runners-up, there's no question they're still a great team. But goaltending and having too many centers who can't play wing will ultimately do them in against the deeper, better Pennsylvania team.
Devils- Assuming they don't re-sign Kovalchuk, they won't win the Atlantic this time. They'll get in because they always do, but Jason Arnott? Really New Jersey? Another first-round exit's in the cards.
Canucks- I flirted with giving them the conference final position over Detroit, but I'm not buying into that defensive corps just yet. Like SCH said, they've got the deepest pool of #3 defensemen in the league, but no real elite top-pairing guys. Dan Hamhuis was a #3 on a good Nashville team, but Keith Ballard was a #3 on a bad Florida team. So I'm not buying in. And obviously Luongo still has done nothing in the playoffs yet, so that doesn't help.
Sharks- Kicking Nabakov to the curb in favor of a guy who's never, ever been playoff-tested does not suddenly mean they're on their way over the hump. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Capitals- Like the Canucks, I flirted with giving them the Eastern runner-up spot over Philly, but like the Canucks I'm not ready to buy in yet either. They flamed out in the playoffs in epic fashion and are now basically San Jose East, and their brilliant plan to change all that appeared to be.....well, nothing, actually. Great plan. Until Mike Green realizes he has to change his game in the playoffs and/or John Carlson steps up and makes him irrelevant, they're destined to first- and second-round exits.
Bruins- This is my dark horse. I love the Nathan Horton move; he seems legitimately excited to be there and if he can stay healthy and put up between 30-40 goals, they will be a contender. They were the #1 defensive team in the NHL last year, all they were missing was some goal-scoring. Yes, the Philly collapse will sting for a while, but you can also point to some key injuries and kind of explain away at least a bit of it (obviously not all of it). Plus, the real X-factor here is what, exactly, will Tyler Seguin (who I still maintain will be better than Taylor Hall) bring to the Bruins in his rookie season? It will be fun to watch, and I think if it all comes together the Bruins could be a serious Cup-contending team, but at this juncture I still feel like they're another year away. We'll see.
Oh god, I got so excited for this season just writing all that. Can we all just pretend it's October now? Please?
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Friday, June 25, 2010
2010 NHL Entry Draft Live Blog
Alright folks, welcome to CIA's live blog of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft! This is the first time I'm trying this whole live blogging business so if it sucks, there you go. But if you want to hear from someone who has roughly 7,000 favorite teams (to go with another 7,000 he hates) on draft day, well then I'm your guy. So let's get to it!
6:28 pm: We're about a half-hour away from the start of the draft, watching the NHL Network's draft preview which so far is just a rehash of all the draft profiles they ran throughout their playoff coverage. Way to go, NHL Network.
6:31 pm: For point of reference, my six favorite teams, in order of how much I love them: 1) Rangers, 2) Kings, 3) Blackhawks, 4) Oilers, 5) Capitals, 6) Habs. The top 3 have been the same in the exact same order since I was like 8, but the bottom 3 can (and often will) flip-flop in my luv rankings. In this case, the Oilers jumped from 6 to 4 in draft excitement and naming Tom Renney (who I have a personal soft spot for from his Ranger days and I really feel is a great coach) the new head coach. The Habs, meanwhile, dropped from 4 to 6 due to trading away my man Halak. As far as my most hated teams, well, pretty much all their major rivals, so that covers a lot of ground. Having the Flames & Leafs on my list of "most hated" today means I have something in common with fans in Calgary & Toronto, oddly enough.
6:40 pm: Hey Edmonton, have I mentioned (TYLER SEGUIN!) who I want you to take (TYLER SEGUIN!) with the first overall pick (OH GOD PLEASE LET IT BE TYLER SEGUIN!). No, you're right, you can't go wrong either way (UNLESS YOU TAKE TAYLOR HALL!). I leave you with these thoughts- Tyler Seguin, Tyler Seguin, and Tyler Seguin.
6:50 pm: After the foregone conclusion that is theMaple Leafs Bruins' second-overall pick, the real intrigue starts with Florida's #3. There's the Big 3 D-Men, the bionic wonder Brett Connolly, and the rising stars from the Portland Winterhawks of Ryan Johansen & Nino Niederreiter all having a case to go in the top 5. Obviously, only three of them will. 10 minutes to go!
6:57 pm: Speaking of the Big 3 D-Men, I would be remiss to not mention my friend Aaron, who lives in Windsor, sees the Spitfires play all the time, and is very convinced that Cam Fowler will be a gigantic bust. Considering he's seen a hell of a lot more of him than I have, I will defer to him. If I was a GM I'd take the defensemen who actually show at least a passing desire to, you know, play defense, but what do I know?
7:00 pm: Yeah Versus, way to pick up that TSN coverage again! I was actually a little worried they might try their own hand at it this year; thank god they didn't. Also, a source on Twitter says Keith Ballard to Vancouver for Steve Bernier & the 25th overall pick. In unrelated news, Roberto Luongo was seen crying, although in fairness to Keith Ballard that's not exactly a rare occurance.
7:04 pm: Hey, let's cover the Oilers laughable attempt at picking up the 2nd overall pick like it's a real story!
7:05 pm: McKenzie and McGuire say it's got to be Taylor Hall going first overall. Apparently their moms never told them if you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all.
7:07 pm: As if the Oilers needed another reason not to take Taylor, he just gushed over seeing Jennifer Love-Hewitt at the Twilight premiere last night. That's 1996 calling, Taylor, and they want their crush back.
7:09 pm: Apparently TSN has been watching reality TV contests and taking notes, because we're going to have to wait through our first commercial break of the evening before we get to see Tyler Seguin picked first overall. Come on guys, that's not exactly a cliffhanger.
7:12 pm: Eklund thinks something will happen with a top 5 pick, because apparently someone he was talking to had to leave suddenly. Not true, and I know that because I have an exclusive source that tells me this person had a plan in place: if caught talking to Eklund for longer than 2 minutes, fake a phone call to get him out of it.
7:14 pm: Wow, they did a great job filling up these stands in LA. Even I didn't think it would be this full. Yay hockey in socal!
7:16 pm: Some loud boos for the Oilers confirms that, yes, there are in fact some Ducks fans in attendance. Or maybe it's Kings fans who still remember that awful game where the Oilers somehow beat us via shootout in our own building this year. Yes, the Oilers won a road game.
7:18 pm: MOTHERFUCKER MOTHERFUCKER MOTHERFUCKER
7:19 pm: Hey Steve Tambellini: fuck you. Just fuck you. How many goddamn wingers do you think the Oilers need?
7:25 pm: Brian Burke Count is at 1. Here comes Peter to take the better player.
7:38 pm: Dale Tallon adds to the Panthers' bounty of young defensemen with big, physical Erik Gudbranson. Having Dimitri Kulikov as a puck-mover allows him to go for the hard-hitting but offensively limited defenseman. Good, safe pick. Now let's see if Columbus goes for one of the other two big D-men or they go off the board with a risky pick on Connolly.
7:40 pm: Panthers have to be considered an up-and-coming team. Finally.
7:43 pm: Some speculation the Jackets may opt for the Winterhawks' center Ryan Johansen just based on need, which would make Steve Yzerman very happy as he's hoping either Fowler or Gormley will still be there at #6. We're about to find out.
7:48 pm: And indeed, the Jackets take Ryan Johansen in our first off-the-board pick. TSN had him 6th, Central Scouting had him 10th, Hockey News had him 12th. Jackets may have a minor bust on their hands with this one; he's physically immature, he benefitted from playing with Swiss wunderkid Nino Niederreiter on his line in Portland, and he went 150th overall in the OHL draft as a 15-year-old. Risky pick to be sure. Next up is the Islanders, who also have a need at forward to get Tavares some support, so who knows if they'll go off the board as well.
7:49 pm: Twitter source says the Kings are making a last-minute push for the Islanders' 5th overall pick, so they must really want either Gormley or Fowler with both still available.
7:51 pm: I'm starting to wonder if Cam Fowler might be this year's first round slider. Gormley is a better all-around defender and there's still a lot of top-end forward talent available (Nino, Connolly, Skinner).
7:53 pm: Alyssa Milano is on the set, apparently she's a big hockey fan. Her brother, who did play junior, called Taylor Hall for first overall, and I'm just going to assume that Alyssa Milano's Brother was the tie-breaking vote on the Oilers draft table, because why not?
7:55 pm: Kevin Connolly from Entourage is up there with the Islanders. A signal they will take Brett Connolly? STAY TUNED!
7:56 pm: And the slide for Gormley & Fowler continues, it's back-to-back Winterhawk picks as the Isles take Nino Niederreiter, shattering the record for highest-drafted Swiss player (Michel Risen 14th overall by the Oilers in 1997). As a Rangers fan who really wanted this kid, this hurts. Good pick by the Isles to compliment Tavares. Now Yzerman goes from just hoping one of Gormley or Fowler will be available to getting to make his pick of the two of them, stunning.
8:01 pm: Well, nevermind all this defensemen shit, Yzerman takes Brett Connolly. My god. He was ranked 8th by TSN due mostly to injury concerns. Not sure I get this pick, they have enough forwards. Maybe it means St. Louis & Lecavailier's time in Tampa could be drawing to a close. So the slide for Gormley & Fowler continues. Will Carolina break their tradition of always taking forwards at 7th with those two both still available?
8:12 pm: Carolina is up for the 7th pick....and they take Jeffery Skinner. Fucking shit, I really really wanted him for the Rangers. So now Gormley & Fowler just keep on sliding, and I'm starting to worry the Rangers will end up taking Fowler at 10th. Like I said, I think he's gonna be a bust, bigtime.
8:19 pm: Here comes Rick Dudley for the Atlanta Thrashers. At this point I'm just hoping they leave us Gormley for 10th, so here he comes to pick Brandon Gormley. Nevermind, Thrashers take TSN's 15th ranked player, Alexander Burmistrov. He's a good center, probably should have been ranked higher if not for the Russian factor, but if he actually does stay in the NHL this will be a good pick for a team that desperately needs offensive talent with Kovalchuk gone. So now we could be seeing a situation where one of (or both!) Gormley or Fowler fall from being ranked in the top 5 in virtually everyone's rankings to out of the top 10.
8:23 pm: Brian Burke Count- 2. Wow, pretty low actually. Burke looks bored.
8:24 pm: Wild continue the apparent strike against draft defensemen in the top 10 with Mikael Granlund from the Finnish Elite League. Very smart player, very good playmaker, but tiny at 5'10. Wild had an offensive need that was desperate, so now it's confirmed: either Gormley or Fowler will slide out of the top 10. Alright Sather, here we go, DO NOT DRAFT CAM FOWLER.
8:34 pm: Rangers take big, tough defenseman Dylan Mcilrath. He's 6-4, could get up to 240 lbs, nicknamed "the Undertaker". Off the board a little bit, 15th ranked in TSN, voted toughest player in the TSN draft poll with 19 fighting majors. So Gormley and Fowler are still on the board. I would have rather had Gormley but I don't mind this pick.
8:38 pm: Dallas Stars take the 9th ranked pick according to TSN, goaltender Jack Campbell. So Cam Fowler isn't even the first American to go, wow. As McGuire pointed out, weird pick considering they just traded for former 1st overall pick Kari Lehtonen. But he could be a legitimate franchise goalie, so whatever I guess. Someone might want to tell Fowler & Gormley to grab a Snickers, 'cause apparently they're not going anywhere for a while.
8:44 pm: The Ducks are up next for the first of their two first-round picks. The Kings fans serenade them with boos that are severely drowning out whatever Ducks fans are here.
8:46 pm: And finally the Ducks take Cam Fowler, who slid from 5th on the TSN & Central Scouting and 3rd on the Hockey News list all the way down to 12th. I would have gone with Gormley but I guess they wanted a pure offensive d-man with Neidemayer retiring. Does Gormley finally go next to Phoenix?
8:53 pm: As Phoenix goes up there to take probably Brandon Gormley thanks to Calgary's dipshit pick, let's all take a moment to laugh at the Sutters.
8:55 pm: Phoenix takes Brandon Gormley, proving they have a brain. I'm really wishing my Rangers took him, but I like the 'Yotes so I'm happy for them and their fans. Never thought in a million years he would drop all the way down to 13th.
9:01 pm: St. Louis continues the trend tonight of going WAY off the board, taking TSN's 29th ranked center from the Tri-City Americans of the USHL, Jaden Schwartz. Interesting pick, he's undersized but he still led the very defense-heavy USHL in scoring last season.
9:08 pm: The Kings traded up, probably to grab a Cali boy. They get Florida's 15th overall pick (that they got from Boston in the Horton trade) for the Kings' 19th & 59th picks. And the crowd is very very VERY happy.
9:11 pm: Nope, turns out they wanted Derek Forbort, who was ranked 11th by TSN and still available at 15th. LA already has plenty of defensemen already on the team and in the system so they have plenty of time to be patient with this huge, 6'5 American. He's on his way to North Dakota in the fall which is a decent hockey program. Great pick by my Kings- pretty sad it was a much better pick than my Rangers at 10th. Senators are up next at 16th.
9:15 pm: Nevermind! The Senators trade the 16th pick to the Blues for....uh....a defenseman. David Rundlad, apparently "a physical defenseman with mobility" according to Pierre McGuire. He went 17th overall in 2009, so it's pretty much a wash. Blues heading up now.
9:17 pm: In probably the first guy to go where TSN predicted him, Vladimir Tarasenko goes to the Blues. Great pick from St. Louis to add to their offensive skill, and the Russian factor isn't as big of a deal here since it's their second first-round pick of the draft.
9:25 pm: Off the board night continues as Colorado takes Joey Hishon, ranked 46th in the TSN list, 17th overall. Bob McKenzie had to search for his papers. Very tiny center from the Owen Sound in the OHL, listed at 5'9 1/2 but looks even smaller than that. Weird pick.
9:33 pm: Nashville takes Austin Watson, ranked 14th by TSN, with the 18th overall pick. He went on a scoring tear this year for Peterborough after Windsor traded him at the OHL trading deadline. Good pick for the Preds and nice to see them not take a defenseman for the first time in like, forever.
9:34 pm: Brian Burke Watch: 3. He's STILL defending the Phil Kessel trade. Okay then.
9:36 pm: Florida GM Dale Tallon up next with the 19th pick that belonged to LA, which they traded for Florida's pick that belonged to Boston. They take Nick Bjugstad, this year's "Mr. Hockey" from Minnesota high school. A huge, six-foot-five center who is very raw right now, Florida could end up with a great pick down the line here. And like the Blues' pick earlier, since this is Florida's second pick of the first round they were able to go with a riskier pick here. Depending on whether Vancouver wants to take their pick this year or not, they could get a THIRD first-round pick at 25th.
9:43 pm: Pittsburgh takes California kid Beau Bennett 20th overall, ranked 18th by TSN. He's a 6'1 right winger who is definitely a project, but you can afford to wait for a project when you're the Penguins I guess. He's heading to a very, very good University of Denver program in the fall.
9:47 pm: Pierre LeBrun reports that according to Bryan Murray, there is "no market" for Ottawa center Jason Spezza and he will remain a Senator.
9:49 pm: Detroit Red Wings up to make the 21st pick, to pockets of boos from the Ducks. They take Notre Dame center Riley Sheahan, a very rare pick that matches up with his TSN ranking. He only had 6 goals playing with the VERY defensive-focused Irish team, and he had an underage drinking violation.
9:56 pm: Phoenix traded their 22nd & 113th picks to Montreal for the 27th & 57th picks. Apparently Montreal sees someone they really want to take and don't think he'll be around much longer. Good deal for the 'Yotes though, they give up a 4th rounder and move their second 1st rounder down 5 spots to pick up another second rounder.
9:58 pm: Montreal goes for 6'3 1/2 US defenseman Jared Tinordi with the 22nd pick, ranked 24th overall by TSN. He was captain of one of the best Under-18 teams that the USA has ever had, that helped America win the Under-18s and the World Juniors in the same year for the first time ever. Good pick considering the Habs desperately needed some size and grit.
10:01 pm: So far we're up to 7 Americans in the first round, below the projected record number of 11 due to some teams going off the board early on. Six picks to go and at least 4 of them have to be Americans to break the record, which probably won't happen, but with the quality of Americans left you could still get 3 to tie it.
10:11 pm: Buffalo takes Mark Pysyk 23rd overall. He was ranked 20th by TSN so another slider here, he's a solid 6'1 1/2 defenseman for the Edmonton Oil Kings of the WHL.
10:15 pm: Apparently whoever the Canucks wanted to take at 25th is gone now, because Darren Dreger just reported that the Ballard deal is done. So Dale Tallon comes back up at 25th. Now here comes his former employers to make this very well-traveled pick (New Jersey--->Atlanta--->Chicago). And now the Hawks go completely of the board to take 6'2 1/2 Kevin Hayes from Boston high school, ranked 49th by TSN. Definitely a long-term future kind of pick.
10:24 pm: Florida becomes the first team to pick 3 first-round picks in one year since Edmonton in 2007 (before that, Washington in 2004). Florida stays on the board, a rarity for this draft, taking Quinton Howden (ranked 26th by TSN) at 25th with Vancouver's pick. Projects to be a fast third-line center, a decent pick-up for Florida's rebuild.
10:33 pm: Washington Capitals are up next at 26th. And they decide to keep going Russian, bring in Evgeny Kuznetsov (ranked 24th by TSN). Apparently he really wants to be an NHL player due to growing up in poverty. He has an inconsistency factor but he's got some really good offensive talents. Apparently he's staying with the KHL for at least the next two years.
10:37 pm: Here comes Phoenix to make their second first-round pick, which is basically a bonus pick after they picked up Brandon Gormley, who was shockingly still there at 13th. And Phoenix goes totally off the board with Mark Visentin from the Niagra Ice Dogs, who was ranked deep in the second round by TSN. Wow, what a strange draft.
10:42 pm: Up next are the San Jose Sharks at 28th as we're really starting to get down to the wire here. Do they take SoCal native Emerson Etem, ranked 17th at TSN who is in the midst of a freefall? We're about to find out.
10:45 pm: Nope, they go a little off the board to take Charlie Coyle, ranked 32nd overall. He's from the same Boston high school as Jeremy Roenick, he's a big, physical winger who's going to Boston University this fall. Alright Ducks, you're up next with the Pronger/Philly pick at 29th, will you take poor Emerson Etem or is the hometown boy going undrafted in the first round?
10:50 pm: Finally Emerson Etem gets picked, by the Ducks at 29th. He was ranked 17th overall by TSN so thank god he didn't get passed over completely, that would have been embarrassing for the league. Etem is the 10th American-born player picked in the draft, which ties the record from 2006 & 2007. It'll be up to Chicago at 30 to break the record.
10:56 pm: The New York Islanders will pick 30th, as they send the 35th & 58th picks to the Blackhawks for the last pick of the first-round. Seems like an extra second-round pick is a steep price to pay, maybe they're looking for John McFarland.
10:59 pm: So the Islanders take a high school player, Brock Nelson, who was ranked by TSN at 34th anyway. Big kid at 6'3 3/4, especially for a center. 73 points in 25 games is damn good for Boston high school, but this is definitely a long-term project. This pick means that Americans offically break the record, with 11 picks in the first round this year (along with 5 Europeans and 14 Canadians). And that seems like as good of a place as any to wrap this thing up. Thanks for reading folks.
6:28 pm: We're about a half-hour away from the start of the draft, watching the NHL Network's draft preview which so far is just a rehash of all the draft profiles they ran throughout their playoff coverage. Way to go, NHL Network.
6:31 pm: For point of reference, my six favorite teams, in order of how much I love them: 1) Rangers, 2) Kings, 3) Blackhawks, 4) Oilers, 5) Capitals, 6) Habs. The top 3 have been the same in the exact same order since I was like 8, but the bottom 3 can (and often will) flip-flop in my luv rankings. In this case, the Oilers jumped from 6 to 4 in draft excitement and naming Tom Renney (who I have a personal soft spot for from his Ranger days and I really feel is a great coach) the new head coach. The Habs, meanwhile, dropped from 4 to 6 due to trading away my man Halak. As far as my most hated teams, well, pretty much all their major rivals, so that covers a lot of ground. Having the Flames & Leafs on my list of "most hated" today means I have something in common with fans in Calgary & Toronto, oddly enough.
6:40 pm: Hey Edmonton, have I mentioned (TYLER SEGUIN!) who I want you to take (TYLER SEGUIN!) with the first overall pick (OH GOD PLEASE LET IT BE TYLER SEGUIN!). No, you're right, you can't go wrong either way (UNLESS YOU TAKE TAYLOR HALL!). I leave you with these thoughts- Tyler Seguin, Tyler Seguin, and Tyler Seguin.
6:50 pm: After the foregone conclusion that is the
6:57 pm: Speaking of the Big 3 D-Men, I would be remiss to not mention my friend Aaron, who lives in Windsor, sees the Spitfires play all the time, and is very convinced that Cam Fowler will be a gigantic bust. Considering he's seen a hell of a lot more of him than I have, I will defer to him. If I was a GM I'd take the defensemen who actually show at least a passing desire to, you know, play defense, but what do I know?
7:00 pm: Yeah Versus, way to pick up that TSN coverage again! I was actually a little worried they might try their own hand at it this year; thank god they didn't. Also, a source on Twitter says Keith Ballard to Vancouver for Steve Bernier & the 25th overall pick. In unrelated news, Roberto Luongo was seen crying, although in fairness to Keith Ballard that's not exactly a rare occurance.
7:04 pm: Hey, let's cover the Oilers laughable attempt at picking up the 2nd overall pick like it's a real story!
7:05 pm: McKenzie and McGuire say it's got to be Taylor Hall going first overall. Apparently their moms never told them if you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all.
7:07 pm: As if the Oilers needed another reason not to take Taylor, he just gushed over seeing Jennifer Love-Hewitt at the Twilight premiere last night. That's 1996 calling, Taylor, and they want their crush back.
7:09 pm: Apparently TSN has been watching reality TV contests and taking notes, because we're going to have to wait through our first commercial break of the evening before we get to see Tyler Seguin picked first overall. Come on guys, that's not exactly a cliffhanger.
7:12 pm: Eklund thinks something will happen with a top 5 pick, because apparently someone he was talking to had to leave suddenly. Not true, and I know that because I have an exclusive source that tells me this person had a plan in place: if caught talking to Eklund for longer than 2 minutes, fake a phone call to get him out of it.
7:14 pm: Wow, they did a great job filling up these stands in LA. Even I didn't think it would be this full. Yay hockey in socal!
7:16 pm: Some loud boos for the Oilers confirms that, yes, there are in fact some Ducks fans in attendance. Or maybe it's Kings fans who still remember that awful game where the Oilers somehow beat us via shootout in our own building this year. Yes, the Oilers won a road game.
7:18 pm: MOTHERFUCKER MOTHERFUCKER MOTHERFUCKER
7:19 pm: Hey Steve Tambellini: fuck you. Just fuck you. How many goddamn wingers do you think the Oilers need?
7:25 pm: Brian Burke Count is at 1. Here comes Peter to take the better player.
7:38 pm: Dale Tallon adds to the Panthers' bounty of young defensemen with big, physical Erik Gudbranson. Having Dimitri Kulikov as a puck-mover allows him to go for the hard-hitting but offensively limited defenseman. Good, safe pick. Now let's see if Columbus goes for one of the other two big D-men or they go off the board with a risky pick on Connolly.
7:40 pm: Panthers have to be considered an up-and-coming team. Finally.
7:43 pm: Some speculation the Jackets may opt for the Winterhawks' center Ryan Johansen just based on need, which would make Steve Yzerman very happy as he's hoping either Fowler or Gormley will still be there at #6. We're about to find out.
7:48 pm: And indeed, the Jackets take Ryan Johansen in our first off-the-board pick. TSN had him 6th, Central Scouting had him 10th, Hockey News had him 12th. Jackets may have a minor bust on their hands with this one; he's physically immature, he benefitted from playing with Swiss wunderkid Nino Niederreiter on his line in Portland, and he went 150th overall in the OHL draft as a 15-year-old. Risky pick to be sure. Next up is the Islanders, who also have a need at forward to get Tavares some support, so who knows if they'll go off the board as well.
7:49 pm: Twitter source says the Kings are making a last-minute push for the Islanders' 5th overall pick, so they must really want either Gormley or Fowler with both still available.
7:51 pm: I'm starting to wonder if Cam Fowler might be this year's first round slider. Gormley is a better all-around defender and there's still a lot of top-end forward talent available (Nino, Connolly, Skinner).
7:53 pm: Alyssa Milano is on the set, apparently she's a big hockey fan. Her brother, who did play junior, called Taylor Hall for first overall, and I'm just going to assume that Alyssa Milano's Brother was the tie-breaking vote on the Oilers draft table, because why not?
7:55 pm: Kevin Connolly from Entourage is up there with the Islanders. A signal they will take Brett Connolly? STAY TUNED!
7:56 pm: And the slide for Gormley & Fowler continues, it's back-to-back Winterhawk picks as the Isles take Nino Niederreiter, shattering the record for highest-drafted Swiss player (Michel Risen 14th overall by the Oilers in 1997). As a Rangers fan who really wanted this kid, this hurts. Good pick by the Isles to compliment Tavares. Now Yzerman goes from just hoping one of Gormley or Fowler will be available to getting to make his pick of the two of them, stunning.
8:01 pm: Well, nevermind all this defensemen shit, Yzerman takes Brett Connolly. My god. He was ranked 8th by TSN due mostly to injury concerns. Not sure I get this pick, they have enough forwards. Maybe it means St. Louis & Lecavailier's time in Tampa could be drawing to a close. So the slide for Gormley & Fowler continues. Will Carolina break their tradition of always taking forwards at 7th with those two both still available?
8:12 pm: Carolina is up for the 7th pick....and they take Jeffery Skinner. Fucking shit, I really really wanted him for the Rangers. So now Gormley & Fowler just keep on sliding, and I'm starting to worry the Rangers will end up taking Fowler at 10th. Like I said, I think he's gonna be a bust, bigtime.
8:19 pm: Here comes Rick Dudley for the Atlanta Thrashers. At this point I'm just hoping they leave us Gormley for 10th, so here he comes to pick Brandon Gormley. Nevermind, Thrashers take TSN's 15th ranked player, Alexander Burmistrov. He's a good center, probably should have been ranked higher if not for the Russian factor, but if he actually does stay in the NHL this will be a good pick for a team that desperately needs offensive talent with Kovalchuk gone. So now we could be seeing a situation where one of (or both!) Gormley or Fowler fall from being ranked in the top 5 in virtually everyone's rankings to out of the top 10.
8:23 pm: Brian Burke Count- 2. Wow, pretty low actually. Burke looks bored.
8:24 pm: Wild continue the apparent strike against draft defensemen in the top 10 with Mikael Granlund from the Finnish Elite League. Very smart player, very good playmaker, but tiny at 5'10. Wild had an offensive need that was desperate, so now it's confirmed: either Gormley or Fowler will slide out of the top 10. Alright Sather, here we go, DO NOT DRAFT CAM FOWLER.
8:34 pm: Rangers take big, tough defenseman Dylan Mcilrath. He's 6-4, could get up to 240 lbs, nicknamed "the Undertaker". Off the board a little bit, 15th ranked in TSN, voted toughest player in the TSN draft poll with 19 fighting majors. So Gormley and Fowler are still on the board. I would have rather had Gormley but I don't mind this pick.
8:38 pm: Dallas Stars take the 9th ranked pick according to TSN, goaltender Jack Campbell. So Cam Fowler isn't even the first American to go, wow. As McGuire pointed out, weird pick considering they just traded for former 1st overall pick Kari Lehtonen. But he could be a legitimate franchise goalie, so whatever I guess. Someone might want to tell Fowler & Gormley to grab a Snickers, 'cause apparently they're not going anywhere for a while.
8:44 pm: The Ducks are up next for the first of their two first-round picks. The Kings fans serenade them with boos that are severely drowning out whatever Ducks fans are here.
8:46 pm: And finally the Ducks take Cam Fowler, who slid from 5th on the TSN & Central Scouting and 3rd on the Hockey News list all the way down to 12th. I would have gone with Gormley but I guess they wanted a pure offensive d-man with Neidemayer retiring. Does Gormley finally go next to Phoenix?
8:53 pm: As Phoenix goes up there to take probably Brandon Gormley thanks to Calgary's dipshit pick, let's all take a moment to laugh at the Sutters.
8:55 pm: Phoenix takes Brandon Gormley, proving they have a brain. I'm really wishing my Rangers took him, but I like the 'Yotes so I'm happy for them and their fans. Never thought in a million years he would drop all the way down to 13th.
9:01 pm: St. Louis continues the trend tonight of going WAY off the board, taking TSN's 29th ranked center from the Tri-City Americans of the USHL, Jaden Schwartz. Interesting pick, he's undersized but he still led the very defense-heavy USHL in scoring last season.
9:08 pm: The Kings traded up, probably to grab a Cali boy. They get Florida's 15th overall pick (that they got from Boston in the Horton trade) for the Kings' 19th & 59th picks. And the crowd is very very VERY happy.
9:11 pm: Nope, turns out they wanted Derek Forbort, who was ranked 11th by TSN and still available at 15th. LA already has plenty of defensemen already on the team and in the system so they have plenty of time to be patient with this huge, 6'5 American. He's on his way to North Dakota in the fall which is a decent hockey program. Great pick by my Kings- pretty sad it was a much better pick than my Rangers at 10th. Senators are up next at 16th.
9:15 pm: Nevermind! The Senators trade the 16th pick to the Blues for....uh....a defenseman. David Rundlad, apparently "a physical defenseman with mobility" according to Pierre McGuire. He went 17th overall in 2009, so it's pretty much a wash. Blues heading up now.
9:17 pm: In probably the first guy to go where TSN predicted him, Vladimir Tarasenko goes to the Blues. Great pick from St. Louis to add to their offensive skill, and the Russian factor isn't as big of a deal here since it's their second first-round pick of the draft.
9:25 pm: Off the board night continues as Colorado takes Joey Hishon, ranked 46th in the TSN list, 17th overall. Bob McKenzie had to search for his papers. Very tiny center from the Owen Sound in the OHL, listed at 5'9 1/2 but looks even smaller than that. Weird pick.
9:33 pm: Nashville takes Austin Watson, ranked 14th by TSN, with the 18th overall pick. He went on a scoring tear this year for Peterborough after Windsor traded him at the OHL trading deadline. Good pick for the Preds and nice to see them not take a defenseman for the first time in like, forever.
9:34 pm: Brian Burke Watch: 3. He's STILL defending the Phil Kessel trade. Okay then.
9:36 pm: Florida GM Dale Tallon up next with the 19th pick that belonged to LA, which they traded for Florida's pick that belonged to Boston. They take Nick Bjugstad, this year's "Mr. Hockey" from Minnesota high school. A huge, six-foot-five center who is very raw right now, Florida could end up with a great pick down the line here. And like the Blues' pick earlier, since this is Florida's second pick of the first round they were able to go with a riskier pick here. Depending on whether Vancouver wants to take their pick this year or not, they could get a THIRD first-round pick at 25th.
9:43 pm: Pittsburgh takes California kid Beau Bennett 20th overall, ranked 18th by TSN. He's a 6'1 right winger who is definitely a project, but you can afford to wait for a project when you're the Penguins I guess. He's heading to a very, very good University of Denver program in the fall.
9:47 pm: Pierre LeBrun reports that according to Bryan Murray, there is "no market" for Ottawa center Jason Spezza and he will remain a Senator.
9:49 pm: Detroit Red Wings up to make the 21st pick, to pockets of boos from the Ducks. They take Notre Dame center Riley Sheahan, a very rare pick that matches up with his TSN ranking. He only had 6 goals playing with the VERY defensive-focused Irish team, and he had an underage drinking violation.
9:56 pm: Phoenix traded their 22nd & 113th picks to Montreal for the 27th & 57th picks. Apparently Montreal sees someone they really want to take and don't think he'll be around much longer. Good deal for the 'Yotes though, they give up a 4th rounder and move their second 1st rounder down 5 spots to pick up another second rounder.
9:58 pm: Montreal goes for 6'3 1/2 US defenseman Jared Tinordi with the 22nd pick, ranked 24th overall by TSN. He was captain of one of the best Under-18 teams that the USA has ever had, that helped America win the Under-18s and the World Juniors in the same year for the first time ever. Good pick considering the Habs desperately needed some size and grit.
10:01 pm: So far we're up to 7 Americans in the first round, below the projected record number of 11 due to some teams going off the board early on. Six picks to go and at least 4 of them have to be Americans to break the record, which probably won't happen, but with the quality of Americans left you could still get 3 to tie it.
10:11 pm: Buffalo takes Mark Pysyk 23rd overall. He was ranked 20th by TSN so another slider here, he's a solid 6'1 1/2 defenseman for the Edmonton Oil Kings of the WHL.
10:15 pm: Apparently whoever the Canucks wanted to take at 25th is gone now, because Darren Dreger just reported that the Ballard deal is done. So Dale Tallon comes back up at 25th. Now here comes his former employers to make this very well-traveled pick (New Jersey--->Atlanta--->Chicago). And now the Hawks go completely of the board to take 6'2 1/2 Kevin Hayes from Boston high school, ranked 49th by TSN. Definitely a long-term future kind of pick.
10:24 pm: Florida becomes the first team to pick 3 first-round picks in one year since Edmonton in 2007 (before that, Washington in 2004). Florida stays on the board, a rarity for this draft, taking Quinton Howden (ranked 26th by TSN) at 25th with Vancouver's pick. Projects to be a fast third-line center, a decent pick-up for Florida's rebuild.
10:33 pm: Washington Capitals are up next at 26th. And they decide to keep going Russian, bring in Evgeny Kuznetsov (ranked 24th by TSN). Apparently he really wants to be an NHL player due to growing up in poverty. He has an inconsistency factor but he's got some really good offensive talents. Apparently he's staying with the KHL for at least the next two years.
10:37 pm: Here comes Phoenix to make their second first-round pick, which is basically a bonus pick after they picked up Brandon Gormley, who was shockingly still there at 13th. And Phoenix goes totally off the board with Mark Visentin from the Niagra Ice Dogs, who was ranked deep in the second round by TSN. Wow, what a strange draft.
10:42 pm: Up next are the San Jose Sharks at 28th as we're really starting to get down to the wire here. Do they take SoCal native Emerson Etem, ranked 17th at TSN who is in the midst of a freefall? We're about to find out.
10:45 pm: Nope, they go a little off the board to take Charlie Coyle, ranked 32nd overall. He's from the same Boston high school as Jeremy Roenick, he's a big, physical winger who's going to Boston University this fall. Alright Ducks, you're up next with the Pronger/Philly pick at 29th, will you take poor Emerson Etem or is the hometown boy going undrafted in the first round?
10:50 pm: Finally Emerson Etem gets picked, by the Ducks at 29th. He was ranked 17th overall by TSN so thank god he didn't get passed over completely, that would have been embarrassing for the league. Etem is the 10th American-born player picked in the draft, which ties the record from 2006 & 2007. It'll be up to Chicago at 30 to break the record.
10:56 pm: The New York Islanders will pick 30th, as they send the 35th & 58th picks to the Blackhawks for the last pick of the first-round. Seems like an extra second-round pick is a steep price to pay, maybe they're looking for John McFarland.
10:59 pm: So the Islanders take a high school player, Brock Nelson, who was ranked by TSN at 34th anyway. Big kid at 6'3 3/4, especially for a center. 73 points in 25 games is damn good for Boston high school, but this is definitely a long-term project. This pick means that Americans offically break the record, with 11 picks in the first round this year (along with 5 Europeans and 14 Canadians). And that seems like as good of a place as any to wrap this thing up. Thanks for reading folks.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Third Round Prediction Standings
Here's our picks for the conference finals along with the updated standings. This time, the stakes were 2 points for the winner as well as 2 additional points for also correctly guessing the amount of games it took them.
Eastern Conference
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Habs in 6 (+0)
Emily: Habs in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Flyers in 7 (+2)
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 4
John: Blackhawks in 5 (+2)
Emily: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)
Standings After Third Round
1. Quinlan- 13 points
2. Emily- 12 points
3. John- 8 points
Ah yes, things are looking quite desperate for yours truly. But don't worry true believers- there's still a very, very slim chance I can catch them! For the Stanley Cup Finals will feature the ultimate stakes- 3 points for the correct winner, and a staggering 4 points for the correct amount of games it takes them to claim Lord Stanley's hardware! Who will come out on top? We'll find out soon!
Eastern Conference
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Habs in 6 (+0)
Emily: Habs in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Flyers in 7 (+2)
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 4
John: Blackhawks in 5 (+2)
Emily: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)
Standings After Third Round
1. Quinlan- 13 points
2. Emily- 12 points
3. John- 8 points
Ah yes, things are looking quite desperate for yours truly. But don't worry true believers- there's still a very, very slim chance I can catch them! For the Stanley Cup Finals will feature the ultimate stakes- 3 points for the correct winner, and a staggering 4 points for the correct amount of games it takes them to claim Lord Stanley's hardware! Who will come out on top? We'll find out soon!
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Second Round Prediction Standings
Here's our picks for the second round and the updated standings. Remember, in this round it was 1 point for the winner, 2 points for the correct games.
Eastern Conference
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Emily: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Habs in 7 (+3)
(6) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 7
John: Bruins in 7 (+0)
Emily: Flyers in 7 (+3)
Quinlan: Flyers in 6 (+1)
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Sharks in 5
John: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Emily: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Red Wings in 5 (+0)
(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (3) Vancouver Canucks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Emily: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Standings After Second Round
1. Emily- 10 points
2. Quinlan- 9 points
3. John- 6 points
For the conference finals we raise the stakes yet again. This time, 2 points will be awarded for both the winning team AND for the correct amount of games (provided you picked the right winner, of course).
And yes, even though I'm posting these now, the predictions were made prior to any games being played in the third round.
Eastern Conference Finals
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John- Habs in 6
Emily- Habs in 7
Quinlan- Flyers in 7
Western Conference Finals
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
John- Hawks in 5
Emily- Hawks in 6
Quinlan- Hawks in 6
Eastern Conference
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Emily: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Habs in 7 (+3)
(6) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 7
John: Bruins in 7 (+0)
Emily: Flyers in 7 (+3)
Quinlan: Flyers in 6 (+1)
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Sharks in 5
John: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Emily: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Red Wings in 5 (+0)
(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (3) Vancouver Canucks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Emily: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Standings After Second Round
1. Emily- 10 points
2. Quinlan- 9 points
3. John- 6 points
For the conference finals we raise the stakes yet again. This time, 2 points will be awarded for both the winning team AND for the correct amount of games (provided you picked the right winner, of course).
And yes, even though I'm posting these now, the predictions were made prior to any games being played in the third round.
Eastern Conference Finals
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John- Habs in 6
Emily- Habs in 7
Quinlan- Flyers in 7
Western Conference Finals
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
John- Hawks in 5
Emily- Hawks in 6
Quinlan- Hawks in 6
Thursday, April 29, 2010
First Round Prediction Standings
With the first round in the books, it's time to take a look at where the three hosts of CIA Radio ultimately stand. Needless to say, many of the gigantic upsets took us all by surprise, as you'll see in just a moment.
Now, the way I'm doing this scoring system is simple: each of us gets 1 point for getting the winning team right, and then another point if we also got the amount of games it took right. In each round the stakes will go up: in the conference semis, it will still be 1 point for the winner but now it will be 2 points for getting the game number, 2 points for the winner & 2 points for the game # in the conference finals, and finally 3 points for the winner & the game # in the Stanley Cup final.
Eastern Conference
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Caps in 4 (+0)
Emily: Caps in 4 (+0)
Quinlan: Caps in 4 (+0)
Thoughts: The only series where we were all in complete agreement in both the winning team & the number of games, and of course we were all 100% incorrect. To say this came as a shocker would be an understatement; even before Game 6, I remember remarking to both of them that all of us would pick up 1 point here. No one saw the Caps' epic collapse coming, but considering it was a record-setting collapse at that, I don't think anyone can really blame us.
(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Devils in 5 (+0)
Emily: Devils in 5 (+0)
Quinlan: Devils in 6 (+0)
Thoughts: We're off to a fantastic start, aren't we? Again all three of us got this one wrong, too, as we all put too much stock in the goaltending and not even stock in the Flyers' 5-1-0 regular season record against the Devils. At this point, I think I'm going to have to adopt a rule for the Devils- don't pick them to get out of the first round until they actually manage to do it again, no matter how good their regular season was.
(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
Actual Result: Bruins in 6
John: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Emily: Buffalo in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Thoughts: In another series where we were all wrong, I suppose you can say Emily was the closest to being right; on the podcast when we were discussing this series, she kept insisting it would be a very, very close series while Quinlan & I thought it would be a cakewalk for the Sabres. The fact is, Boston found some goal-scoring at the best possible time, and considering how good defenesively they were already that makes them pretty scary.
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
Actual Result: Penguins in 6
John: Ottawa in 7 (+0)
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6 (+2)
Thoughts: Leave it to me to pick my only upset in the only Eastern conference series that DOESN'T HAVE AN UPSET. Of course, Emily & Quinlan played it safe and picked the favorite again, and they finally have a correct prediction as a result. Crosby turned up his play by about seven-million times and Fleury & the defense seemed to get better as time goes on, which was enough to squeak by a fired-up Ottawa squad.
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
Actual Result: Sharks in 6
John: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Emily: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Colorado in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Even though Emily & I both pick up a point and Quinlan gets nothing, in a way his prediction was probably closer to being right than ours was! We thought it would be a four-and-done situation, while Quinlan thought it would be a very close series, and he turned out to be right. Unfortunately, Colorado didn't have what it took to take advantage of some very, very good bounces and finish off the Sharks, who managed to get that monkey off their back somewhat with a huge win.
(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Chicago in 6 (+2)
Emily: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Quinlan: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Actual Thoughts: Yeah, my first two-pointer! I had a feeling this series was going to be a close one and it certainly was, and the Predators have nothing to be ashamed of when they were oh-so-close to a 3-1 lead. The Blackhawks simply had too much talent in the end, but they can't afford to not show up for a game in the next round like they did against the Preds in Game 3.
(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
Actual Result: Canucks in 6
John: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Emily: Vancouver in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Thoughts: Speaking of teams who were very, very close to a 3-1 lead, my poor Kings almost pulled off the upset, but they simply did not have the goaltending in the end to get it done, despite a great start from Jonathan Quick. The third-period collapse in Game 4 was obviously the turning point, and it all went downhill for the Kings from there.
(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Red Wings in 7
John: Detroit in 5 (+1)
Emily: Detroit in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Here's yet another series where we get a point each and Quinlan gets nothing, but Quinlan was probably closer to being right than we were. We both thought this would be an easy out for the Wings, but Quinlan had this as a very close series and he turned out to be right. The Red Wings had way too much talent to go out in the first round, but the 'Yotes put up a hell of a fight.
Standings After First Round
1. Emily - 6 points
2. John - 5 points
3. Quinlan - 4 points
Alright folks, there's your standings after one round. For now Ms. Emily Gee is our leader, but there's still plenty of hockey left to be played, and thus plenty of more bad predictions to be made too. Tonight we'll be back on the air with CIA Radio, where all three of us will make our picks for the second round! You can join in on the fun by clicking here starting at around 7:00 pm EST to join our live chat. There's a number on there where you can call in and talk to us on the show as well. We'll be starting at 7:30 pm EST. Hope to see some of you there!
Now, the way I'm doing this scoring system is simple: each of us gets 1 point for getting the winning team right, and then another point if we also got the amount of games it took right. In each round the stakes will go up: in the conference semis, it will still be 1 point for the winner but now it will be 2 points for getting the game number, 2 points for the winner & 2 points for the game # in the conference finals, and finally 3 points for the winner & the game # in the Stanley Cup final.
Eastern Conference
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Caps in 4 (+0)
Emily: Caps in 4 (+0)
Quinlan: Caps in 4 (+0)
Thoughts: The only series where we were all in complete agreement in both the winning team & the number of games, and of course we were all 100% incorrect. To say this came as a shocker would be an understatement; even before Game 6, I remember remarking to both of them that all of us would pick up 1 point here. No one saw the Caps' epic collapse coming, but considering it was a record-setting collapse at that, I don't think anyone can really blame us.
(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Devils in 5 (+0)
Emily: Devils in 5 (+0)
Quinlan: Devils in 6 (+0)
Thoughts: We're off to a fantastic start, aren't we? Again all three of us got this one wrong, too, as we all put too much stock in the goaltending and not even stock in the Flyers' 5-1-0 regular season record against the Devils. At this point, I think I'm going to have to adopt a rule for the Devils- don't pick them to get out of the first round until they actually manage to do it again, no matter how good their regular season was.
(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
Actual Result: Bruins in 6
John: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Emily: Buffalo in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Thoughts: In another series where we were all wrong, I suppose you can say Emily was the closest to being right; on the podcast when we were discussing this series, she kept insisting it would be a very, very close series while Quinlan & I thought it would be a cakewalk for the Sabres. The fact is, Boston found some goal-scoring at the best possible time, and considering how good defenesively they were already that makes them pretty scary.
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
Actual Result: Penguins in 6
John: Ottawa in 7 (+0)
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6 (+2)
Thoughts: Leave it to me to pick my only upset in the only Eastern conference series that DOESN'T HAVE AN UPSET. Of course, Emily & Quinlan played it safe and picked the favorite again, and they finally have a correct prediction as a result. Crosby turned up his play by about seven-million times and Fleury & the defense seemed to get better as time goes on, which was enough to squeak by a fired-up Ottawa squad.
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
Actual Result: Sharks in 6
John: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Emily: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Colorado in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Even though Emily & I both pick up a point and Quinlan gets nothing, in a way his prediction was probably closer to being right than ours was! We thought it would be a four-and-done situation, while Quinlan thought it would be a very close series, and he turned out to be right. Unfortunately, Colorado didn't have what it took to take advantage of some very, very good bounces and finish off the Sharks, who managed to get that monkey off their back somewhat with a huge win.
(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Chicago in 6 (+2)
Emily: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Quinlan: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Actual Thoughts: Yeah, my first two-pointer! I had a feeling this series was going to be a close one and it certainly was, and the Predators have nothing to be ashamed of when they were oh-so-close to a 3-1 lead. The Blackhawks simply had too much talent in the end, but they can't afford to not show up for a game in the next round like they did against the Preds in Game 3.
(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
Actual Result: Canucks in 6
John: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Emily: Vancouver in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Thoughts: Speaking of teams who were very, very close to a 3-1 lead, my poor Kings almost pulled off the upset, but they simply did not have the goaltending in the end to get it done, despite a great start from Jonathan Quick. The third-period collapse in Game 4 was obviously the turning point, and it all went downhill for the Kings from there.
(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Red Wings in 7
John: Detroit in 5 (+1)
Emily: Detroit in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Here's yet another series where we get a point each and Quinlan gets nothing, but Quinlan was probably closer to being right than we were. We both thought this would be an easy out for the Wings, but Quinlan had this as a very close series and he turned out to be right. The Red Wings had way too much talent to go out in the first round, but the 'Yotes put up a hell of a fight.
Standings After First Round
1. Emily - 6 points
2. John - 5 points
3. Quinlan - 4 points
Alright folks, there's your standings after one round. For now Ms. Emily Gee is our leader, but there's still plenty of hockey left to be played, and thus plenty of more bad predictions to be made too. Tonight we'll be back on the air with CIA Radio, where all three of us will make our picks for the second round! You can join in on the fun by clicking here starting at around 7:00 pm EST to join our live chat. There's a number on there where you can call in and talk to us on the show as well. We'll be starting at 7:30 pm EST. Hope to see some of you there!
Monday, April 12, 2010
CIA Radio Returns! Plus, listing everyone's playoff picks
CIA Radio returned tonight with 90+ minutes of hockey talk! Along with my co-hosts Emily Gee & Bryan Quinlan, we broke down all of the playoff matchups as well as talking about the changes in Tampa Bay. Check us out! From this point forward, we will be on the air each and every Monday night at 9 pm EST to talk about the playoffs as they go on and make more predictions each round. I'll try to remember to post the link on here so you can join our live chat, listen to us live, and even call in and talk with us if you want.
http://tinyurl.com/y6nu6rz
While I listen back to the show, I'm taking down everyone's predictions (and yes, I know I changed a few of mine from my blogs, I think only LA-Vancouver actually but maybe I'm wrong) so I can keep track of it and see who got it right and who got it very, very wrong. After the first round I'll update our standings and see who came closest to getting it right as far as who won and in how many games (since many of our predictions ended up being the same other than how long it would take).
Eastern Conference
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John: Caps in 4
Emily: Caps in 4
Quinlan: Caps in 4
(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
John: Devils in 5
Emily: Devils in "5 or 6" (I'll call it 5)
Quinlan: Devils in 6
(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
John: Buffalo in 5
Emily: Buffalo in 7
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
John: Ottawa in 7
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
John: San Jose in 4
Emily: San Jose in 4
Quinlan: Colorado in 7
(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
John: Chicago in 6
Emily: Chicago in 5
Quinlan: Chicago in 5
(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
John: Vancouver in 7
Emily: Vancouver in 6
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7
(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
John: Detroit in 5
Emily: Detroit in 4
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7
Finalists
Special Guest Mr. Sean Williams!
East: Washington over New Jersey in 5 games
West: Detroit over Chicago in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Detroit in 6 games
Quinlan
East: Washington over Buffalo in 5 games
West: Chicago over Vancouver in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Chicago in 7 games
Emily
East: Washington over New Jersey in "5 or 6" (once again, we'll say 5) games
West: Chicago over Detroit in...uh....she forgot to say. I'll get it out of her.
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "blank" games.
John
East: Washington over New Jersey in 4 games
West: Chicago over Detroit in 5 games
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "5 or 6" (oh no I caught the Emily disease! we'll say 6)
http://tinyurl.com/y6nu6rz
While I listen back to the show, I'm taking down everyone's predictions (and yes, I know I changed a few of mine from my blogs, I think only LA-Vancouver actually but maybe I'm wrong) so I can keep track of it and see who got it right and who got it very, very wrong. After the first round I'll update our standings and see who came closest to getting it right as far as who won and in how many games (since many of our predictions ended up being the same other than how long it would take).
Eastern Conference
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John: Caps in 4
Emily: Caps in 4
Quinlan: Caps in 4
(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
John: Devils in 5
Emily: Devils in "5 or 6" (I'll call it 5)
Quinlan: Devils in 6
(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
John: Buffalo in 5
Emily: Buffalo in 7
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
John: Ottawa in 7
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
John: San Jose in 4
Emily: San Jose in 4
Quinlan: Colorado in 7
(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
John: Chicago in 6
Emily: Chicago in 5
Quinlan: Chicago in 5
(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
John: Vancouver in 7
Emily: Vancouver in 6
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7
(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
John: Detroit in 5
Emily: Detroit in 4
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7
Finalists
Special Guest Mr. Sean Williams!
East: Washington over New Jersey in 5 games
West: Detroit over Chicago in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Detroit in 6 games
Quinlan
East: Washington over Buffalo in 5 games
West: Chicago over Vancouver in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Chicago in 7 games
Emily
East: Washington over New Jersey in "5 or 6" (once again, we'll say 5) games
West: Chicago over Detroit in...uh....she forgot to say. I'll get it out of her.
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "blank" games.
John
East: Washington over New Jersey in 4 games
West: Chicago over Detroit in 5 games
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "5 or 6" (oh no I caught the Emily disease! we'll say 6)
Playoff Preview: Eastern Conference & Final Picks
Continuing where we left off, let's dive into the East...then I'll make my final predictions for who wins each conference and ultimately, the Stanley Cup.
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadians
(Season series was split, both teams went 2-1-1)
As insane as this is for me to even type, a friend of mine who is a huge Habs fan claimed to have actually been rooting for this match-up. This isn't something he just threw out there after it was already official, either; he actually made this statement before the Rangers-Flyers game that ultimately sealed the Habs' fate. A fate that will more than likely see them get swept right out of the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Now, of course, I suppose it is possible that the Presidents' Trophy winners get upset two years in a row. But likely? Not very. The Capitals score goals in bunches and have showed over the past few weeks that they are at least trying to play better defensively heading into the playoffs. Watch a Capitals game recently and you'll see players occasionally doing crazy things like- GASP- back-checking! Now, no one is going to confuse this team with, say, the New Jersey Devils. But this is still the overwhelming favorite in the East who rolled through the regular season, and even a minor defensive adjustment should be enough to take them far through the playoffs. Barring a complete and total breakdown from both of their goaltenders, the Caps will take this one easily. And to be quite frank, I'm not even sure both their goalies' breaking down would be enough for the Habs to win this series, either. Short of a meteor striking the location of a Capitals practice, I'm not sure anything would be.
Prediciton: Caps in four.
(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
(Flyers won season series 5-1-0)
As any New York Rangers fan could tell you, there's nothing we enjoy more than watching the Devils lose. Last year was a particularly fun time, as the Devils won the Atlantic and promptly flamed out in the first-round for the second year in a row, in spectacular fashion. And there's nothing I'd love to do more than tell you it's going to happen again this year. But I can't. And the reason why is called Ilya Kovalchuck.
Now, I know what some are going to point to: one point in four games when his previous team was getting swept out of their only playoff appearance (by the Rangers, ironically enough). But being on a bad team that only got into the playoffs on the utter weakness of their division isn't enough to make Kovalchuck a Thornton-level playoff choker. You can't form a pattern from such a small sample size. And on this Devil team, Kovalchuck doesn't have to do it all. He just has to be good, as good as he's been for them while they quietly wrestled away the Atlantic crown from the Penguins and then held off the Sabres for second in the conference on their final day. And I think he will be.
The Flyers, of course, squandered a huge lead for a playoff spot and needed to beat out those same Rangers in a shootout on the very last day of the season just to get in. So they're not exactly coming in on a hot streak. And really, when it comes right down to it, Cam Ward and Henrik Lundqvist out-dueling Martin Brodeur over the past two years is one thing. But Brian Boucher? Think about this for a second: are the Flyers' group of forwards or defensemen really so much better than New Jersey's that you think they'll make up for the fact that their goalie is BRIAN BOUCHER and Jersey's goalie is MARTIN BRODEUR?! The answer you're looking for is a resounding "no."
Prediction: Devils in five.
(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
(Bruins won season series 4-2-0)
Some people are already pointing at this clash of Northeast division rivals as perhaps the East's only potential for an upset this year, and I must vehemently disagree (on a couple of fronts, actually, but we'll get to that in a second). I know everyone had gotten all caught up in the story of these plucky Bruins battling their way into the playoffs, setting a new record for most short-handed goals on someone else's single power play in the process (nevermind the fact that it came against an eliminated Carolina team that actually appeared to somehow be skating around in their sleep at the time), but let's get real here. This is still the team who finished the NHL regular season dead last, 30th out of 30 in the NHL in scoring. I don't care how great they are defensively, this team simply does not score. Now we're taking that team and expecting them to score enough goals against Ryan Miller to win a 7-game series? Yeah. Not bloody likely.
Now, with all that said, if Tuuka Rask keeps standing on his head like he has all season long for them I suppose anything is possible. And of all the first-round match-ups, this one definitely has the most potential to go into multiple-OTs. It reminds me a little bit of that Vancouver-Dallas series from a few seasons ago: neither team could score to begin with and both goalies (Marty Turco and Roberto Luongo) were feeling it, so we had seemingly another seven games played in extra periods. But when two elite goalies playing at the top of their game play each other in a seven-game series, what usually happens is they simply negate each other and the better, more talented team wins out in the end. It happened then with Vancouver beating Dallas, and it will probably happen again this year with Buffalo beating Boston.
Prediction: Buffalo in five.
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
(Season series was split, both teams went 2-2-0)
Ah yes, now it's time to pay off that bit of foreshadowing from earlier: I said I disagreed with the majority opinion of Boston-over-Buffalo being the East's only potential upset, right? Well, here's the other reason why: I think if there's going to be an upset at all in the remarkably top-heavy East this year, it's going to come in this series. And make no mistake about it, this battle of the defending Stanley Cup champions against a team that has been the definition of inconsistency all season long is FAR from your typical 4-5 matchup. Whereas usually the two teams are very close and the series can be reasonably called a toss-up, this year Pittsburgh will enter as the overwhelming favorites in the eyes of many. However, peel back a few layers here and you'll begin to realize that all is not well in the NHL's favorite city. Sidney Crosby's reinvention as a goal-scoring machine this season has been a feel-good story, and that feel-good story has allowed them to cover up some huge holes that suggest the Pens are not in for anywhere near that deep of a run this season. In no particular order, those holes are:
-Malkin's drop-off from his Art Ross season to an injury-plagued and utterly disappointing campaign.
-Marc-Andre Fleury's less-than-stellar play in goal; he's been pulled in seemingly every-other Pens game I've seen this year en route to a paltry .905 save % and 2.65 GAA.
-The Pens as a whole being unable to win big games against good teams all season. Against the top two teams in the conference, the Caps & Devils, the Pens failed to win even a single game in ten tries, and it was their epic run of futility against the Devils in particular that ultimately cost them the Atlantic.
-Their power play hovered around ten percent without Sergei Gonchar in the lineup for most of the season. No, that's not a typo- TEN PERCENT. Gonchar is back again right now from yet another injury, but who knows how long that will last?
Add all that up together and you've got a team that is on very shaky ground, in my opinion. They just looked tired for a lot of this year, and you know what? Who can really blame them? They've gone to back-to-back Stanley Cup finals, and that has to take its toll at some point. That's why I just don't see how they could possibly have another long playoff run in them.
With all that said, I can certainly understand why most everyone will pick them over Ottawa. But I'm willing to stand out on this limb all by myself. I think it all comes down to Brian Elliot first-and-foremost. All season long, for the most part, the Senators have gone as he has gone. When he's played well (and at times he's played VERY well this year), the team rattles off franchise-record win streaks. When he's played not-so-well, they lose 6 games in a row. They play a very tight-checking game in front of him and the roster has largely "bought in" to coach Cory Clouston, even (surprisingly) guys like Jason Spezza. Losing Alex Kovalev to an ACL tear hurt, sure, but there were many a night this year where they might as well not have had Alex Kovalev in the line-up anyway and they still found a way to win plenty of games. I believe that, no matter what, this series will be a lot closer than most people are expecting. But in the end, I really think the Senators can get it done, and send the NHL's poster boys home very early. Don't cry, Mr. Bettman....at least you'll still have the Caps.
Prediction: Senators in seven.
Alright, with all that said and done, I'm gonna make my final predictions for the rest of the playoffs. As a reminder, before the season started I went with Pittsburgh over Washington and Chicago over Vancouver for my conference finals, and ultimately Chicago over Pittsburgh for the Stanley Cup. Obviously I'm changing that prediction now if I'm telling you the Penguins are going home in the first-round, so without further ado....
Eastern Conference: Washington over New Jersey
Western Conference: Chicago over Detroit
Stanley Cup: Chicago over Washington
I'm sticking with my pick in the West and ultimately for the Stanley Cup, but I'm changing up some of the finalists in the process. Some of that's just due to logistics; if the first-round go as I predicted it, Chicago would face Vancouver in the conference semis. But in the East, I think it's clearly become Washington's to lose.
Alright folks, that'll do it for now. As a reminder, tomorrow night at 9 pm EST we'll have a special playoff preview edition of CIA Radio, so if you've got any comments of your own the link will be here (and on Facebook & Twitter) for you to call in and share your thoughts with us. I'll be live with my two co-hosts as we break down all these playoff matchups all over again. Until then, enjoy these two days off, because on Wednesday it's time to start playing for Lord Stanley's hardware!
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadians
(Season series was split, both teams went 2-1-1)
As insane as this is for me to even type, a friend of mine who is a huge Habs fan claimed to have actually been rooting for this match-up. This isn't something he just threw out there after it was already official, either; he actually made this statement before the Rangers-Flyers game that ultimately sealed the Habs' fate. A fate that will more than likely see them get swept right out of the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Now, of course, I suppose it is possible that the Presidents' Trophy winners get upset two years in a row. But likely? Not very. The Capitals score goals in bunches and have showed over the past few weeks that they are at least trying to play better defensively heading into the playoffs. Watch a Capitals game recently and you'll see players occasionally doing crazy things like- GASP- back-checking! Now, no one is going to confuse this team with, say, the New Jersey Devils. But this is still the overwhelming favorite in the East who rolled through the regular season, and even a minor defensive adjustment should be enough to take them far through the playoffs. Barring a complete and total breakdown from both of their goaltenders, the Caps will take this one easily. And to be quite frank, I'm not even sure both their goalies' breaking down would be enough for the Habs to win this series, either. Short of a meteor striking the location of a Capitals practice, I'm not sure anything would be.
Prediciton: Caps in four.
(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
(Flyers won season series 5-1-0)
As any New York Rangers fan could tell you, there's nothing we enjoy more than watching the Devils lose. Last year was a particularly fun time, as the Devils won the Atlantic and promptly flamed out in the first-round for the second year in a row, in spectacular fashion. And there's nothing I'd love to do more than tell you it's going to happen again this year. But I can't. And the reason why is called Ilya Kovalchuck.
Now, I know what some are going to point to: one point in four games when his previous team was getting swept out of their only playoff appearance (by the Rangers, ironically enough). But being on a bad team that only got into the playoffs on the utter weakness of their division isn't enough to make Kovalchuck a Thornton-level playoff choker. You can't form a pattern from such a small sample size. And on this Devil team, Kovalchuck doesn't have to do it all. He just has to be good, as good as he's been for them while they quietly wrestled away the Atlantic crown from the Penguins and then held off the Sabres for second in the conference on their final day. And I think he will be.
The Flyers, of course, squandered a huge lead for a playoff spot and needed to beat out those same Rangers in a shootout on the very last day of the season just to get in. So they're not exactly coming in on a hot streak. And really, when it comes right down to it, Cam Ward and Henrik Lundqvist out-dueling Martin Brodeur over the past two years is one thing. But Brian Boucher? Think about this for a second: are the Flyers' group of forwards or defensemen really so much better than New Jersey's that you think they'll make up for the fact that their goalie is BRIAN BOUCHER and Jersey's goalie is MARTIN BRODEUR?! The answer you're looking for is a resounding "no."
Prediction: Devils in five.
(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
(Bruins won season series 4-2-0)
Some people are already pointing at this clash of Northeast division rivals as perhaps the East's only potential for an upset this year, and I must vehemently disagree (on a couple of fronts, actually, but we'll get to that in a second). I know everyone had gotten all caught up in the story of these plucky Bruins battling their way into the playoffs, setting a new record for most short-handed goals on someone else's single power play in the process (nevermind the fact that it came against an eliminated Carolina team that actually appeared to somehow be skating around in their sleep at the time), but let's get real here. This is still the team who finished the NHL regular season dead last, 30th out of 30 in the NHL in scoring. I don't care how great they are defensively, this team simply does not score. Now we're taking that team and expecting them to score enough goals against Ryan Miller to win a 7-game series? Yeah. Not bloody likely.
Now, with all that said, if Tuuka Rask keeps standing on his head like he has all season long for them I suppose anything is possible. And of all the first-round match-ups, this one definitely has the most potential to go into multiple-OTs. It reminds me a little bit of that Vancouver-Dallas series from a few seasons ago: neither team could score to begin with and both goalies (Marty Turco and Roberto Luongo) were feeling it, so we had seemingly another seven games played in extra periods. But when two elite goalies playing at the top of their game play each other in a seven-game series, what usually happens is they simply negate each other and the better, more talented team wins out in the end. It happened then with Vancouver beating Dallas, and it will probably happen again this year with Buffalo beating Boston.
Prediction: Buffalo in five.
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
(Season series was split, both teams went 2-2-0)
Ah yes, now it's time to pay off that bit of foreshadowing from earlier: I said I disagreed with the majority opinion of Boston-over-Buffalo being the East's only potential upset, right? Well, here's the other reason why: I think if there's going to be an upset at all in the remarkably top-heavy East this year, it's going to come in this series. And make no mistake about it, this battle of the defending Stanley Cup champions against a team that has been the definition of inconsistency all season long is FAR from your typical 4-5 matchup. Whereas usually the two teams are very close and the series can be reasonably called a toss-up, this year Pittsburgh will enter as the overwhelming favorites in the eyes of many. However, peel back a few layers here and you'll begin to realize that all is not well in the NHL's favorite city. Sidney Crosby's reinvention as a goal-scoring machine this season has been a feel-good story, and that feel-good story has allowed them to cover up some huge holes that suggest the Pens are not in for anywhere near that deep of a run this season. In no particular order, those holes are:
-Malkin's drop-off from his Art Ross season to an injury-plagued and utterly disappointing campaign.
-Marc-Andre Fleury's less-than-stellar play in goal; he's been pulled in seemingly every-other Pens game I've seen this year en route to a paltry .905 save % and 2.65 GAA.
-The Pens as a whole being unable to win big games against good teams all season. Against the top two teams in the conference, the Caps & Devils, the Pens failed to win even a single game in ten tries, and it was their epic run of futility against the Devils in particular that ultimately cost them the Atlantic.
-Their power play hovered around ten percent without Sergei Gonchar in the lineup for most of the season. No, that's not a typo- TEN PERCENT. Gonchar is back again right now from yet another injury, but who knows how long that will last?
Add all that up together and you've got a team that is on very shaky ground, in my opinion. They just looked tired for a lot of this year, and you know what? Who can really blame them? They've gone to back-to-back Stanley Cup finals, and that has to take its toll at some point. That's why I just don't see how they could possibly have another long playoff run in them.
With all that said, I can certainly understand why most everyone will pick them over Ottawa. But I'm willing to stand out on this limb all by myself. I think it all comes down to Brian Elliot first-and-foremost. All season long, for the most part, the Senators have gone as he has gone. When he's played well (and at times he's played VERY well this year), the team rattles off franchise-record win streaks. When he's played not-so-well, they lose 6 games in a row. They play a very tight-checking game in front of him and the roster has largely "bought in" to coach Cory Clouston, even (surprisingly) guys like Jason Spezza. Losing Alex Kovalev to an ACL tear hurt, sure, but there were many a night this year where they might as well not have had Alex Kovalev in the line-up anyway and they still found a way to win plenty of games. I believe that, no matter what, this series will be a lot closer than most people are expecting. But in the end, I really think the Senators can get it done, and send the NHL's poster boys home very early. Don't cry, Mr. Bettman....at least you'll still have the Caps.
Prediction: Senators in seven.
Alright, with all that said and done, I'm gonna make my final predictions for the rest of the playoffs. As a reminder, before the season started I went with Pittsburgh over Washington and Chicago over Vancouver for my conference finals, and ultimately Chicago over Pittsburgh for the Stanley Cup. Obviously I'm changing that prediction now if I'm telling you the Penguins are going home in the first-round, so without further ado....
Eastern Conference: Washington over New Jersey
Western Conference: Chicago over Detroit
Stanley Cup: Chicago over Washington
I'm sticking with my pick in the West and ultimately for the Stanley Cup, but I'm changing up some of the finalists in the process. Some of that's just due to logistics; if the first-round go as I predicted it, Chicago would face Vancouver in the conference semis. But in the East, I think it's clearly become Washington's to lose.
Alright folks, that'll do it for now. As a reminder, tomorrow night at 9 pm EST we'll have a special playoff preview edition of CIA Radio, so if you've got any comments of your own the link will be here (and on Facebook & Twitter) for you to call in and share your thoughts with us. I'll be live with my two co-hosts as we break down all these playoff matchups all over again. Until then, enjoy these two days off, because on Wednesday it's time to start playing for Lord Stanley's hardware!
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