Pre-Season Predictions: Eastern Conference

With training camps just around the corner, now seems like a good time to start jumping into the shark-infested waters that are pre-season predictions. Of all the years to try and predict finishes in both conferences, this year easily feels like the most absurd. We're coming off a year where Phoenix & Colorado, almost unanimously picked by everyone to finish 14th & 15th in the Western Conference, finished 4th & 8th, respectively. I'd like to sit here and tell you that I was the one guy who picked them to make the playoffs last year, but I'd be lying.

So let's go ahead and admit to ourselves this very well may be a pointless exercise. As long as we get that out of the way, it's still fun to try and see how close we came to picking the final standings, even (or maybe especially) when we're hilariously wrong.

I'm not going to go into a ton of detail on these picks, as we'll have episodes of CIA Radio coming up (season 3 starts very very soon!) to go into detail on each conference. I'll just briefly state why I think they'll finish at that spot, and what could happen to make them finish higher or lower instead. We'll have both an Eastern Conference preview show and a Western conference preview show before we get the season rolling, so there will be plenty of time to go in lots of detail. I also collected picks from my co-hosts Emily & Quinlan, and I'll share those first; though you'll have to wait until the shows to get any explanations out of them.


Eastern Conference

Emily
1. Washington Capitals
2. Pittsburgh Penguins
3. Buffalo Sabres
4. New Jersey Devils
5. Philadelphia Flyers
6. Boston Bruins
7. Ottawa Senators
8. New York Rangers
9. Carolina Hurricanes
10. Montreal Canadiens
11. Tampa Bay Lightning
12. Atlanta Thrashers
13. New York Islanders
14. Toronto Maple Leafs
15. Florida Panthers

Quinlan
1. Washington Capitals
2. Pittsburgh Penguins
3. Boston Bruins
4. New Jersey Devils
5. Ottawa Senators
6. New York Rangers
7. Tampa Bay Lightning
8. New York Islanders
9. Philadelphia Flyers
10. Montreal Canadiens
11. Carolina Hurricanes
12. Buffalo Sabres
13. Atlanta Thrashers
14. Toronto Maple Leafs
15. Florida Panthers

John (THAT'S ME!!!)
1. Washington Capitals
Why They'll Finish First: San Jose East will roll through another ho-hum regular season of 115-120 points and a flawless home record, and it won't matter one bit. It's all about the playoffs for this team, and unless Carlson & Alzner are ready to take a huge step forward and take ownership of their defense ahead of proven playoff zero Mike Green, I don't know if things will change too much. But as far as the regular season goes, it'll be another easy road to first overall in the East.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Uh....they can't. Yeah.

Why They Could Finish Lower: It's impossible for me to come up with any scenario where this team doesn't win the Southeast Division. Like if you told me last year that Phoenix & Colorado were both going to make the playoffs, I would have found that more possible than Washington not winning the Southeast. So they can't finish any lower than third. I could see a Pittsburgh or Boston overtaking them for first overall if they come out of the gates slow with their shoulders drooped, but honestly this team is so young and hungry I don't see that happening. But I suppose it's possible.

2. Boston Bruins
Why They'll Finish Second: I really like the moves the Bruins made this off-season. Nathan Horton sounds rejuveniated at the idea of playing in a traditional hockey market like Boston, and should hit the 30-goal mark easily. 35 to even 40 goals should not be out of the question, especially if a healthy Marc Savard is feeding him the puck all year long (remember the chemistry he had with Kessel two years ago?). Obviously that was the one thing Boston was missing last year; they were 2nd in the league in goals-against average (GAA) but dead last in goals per game (GPG). Tyler Seguin could be an impact player in his first year, even on the wing. And even if Tuuka Rask has a Steven Mason-like sophomore jinx, 2009 Vezina trophy winner Tim Thomas is waiting in the wings.

Why They Could Finish Higher: If Horton hits 40 goals, Seguin has a Calder-worthy campaign, and Rask and/or Thomas are as good as they were the past two seasons, they could get back to first overall. Remember, they were just there in 2009.

Why They Could Finish Lower: I don't like a lot of the moves the rest of the Northeast Division made, but I suppose the Bruins might have trouble winning the division if Horton is at his Panthers worst; i.e. oft-injured and rarely looking like he gives a damn on the ice. The defensive corps also look like they're another top-4 NHL defenseman away from being a real good unit; while Dennis Wideman played pretty badly last year, his minutes will still need to be replaced, and none of the top 6 in Boston after Chara really look like sure things.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins
Why They'll Finish Third: It's amazing to think that the Penguins haven't won the Atlantic Division since 2008. That trend should end this year. Their defense looks even better than the 2009 Cup-winning team's blueline with the additions of smooth puck-mover Paul Martin and the shot-blocking prowess of Zbynek Michalek more than making up for the loss of Sergei Gonchar (who looked downright bored at times last season, when he wasn't on the IR that is). Throw those two in the mix with young and yet already Pens veterans Brooks Orpik & Kris Letang, as well as the even younger talents like Alex Goligoski, and you have what has gone from the Penguins' weakness in 2009 to a huge, huge strength in 2010. And of course, that Sidney Crosby guy still plays here too. I hear he's pretty good.

Why They Could Finish Higher: I'm thinking they'll battle it out with Boston for the second seed right down to the wire, but I see Boston just barely pulling it out (thanks mostly to the Bruins playing in the far weaker Northeast Division). But they could conceivably get all the way to first place in the conference for the first time in almost 20 years if the blueline is even better and Malkin has a huge bounceback year. Another guy to watch out for is Mike Comrie; he's coming off a disappointing year in Edmonton, but who was good in Edmonton last year? There's serious potential there if he gets to play on Crosby or Malkin's wing, which he probably will.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Marc-Andre Fleury melted down in Game 7 of the second round with Montreal last season, putting an exclamation point on what was a pretty terrible year for him after the Cup win. His dedication was questioned as well when he showed up almost a half-hour late for a pre-game meeting during that same playoff round. If he hasn't rededicated himself over the summer, it could conceivably cost the Penguins not just the Atlantic, but home ice in the first round as well with division rivals Philadelphia & New Jersey sure to be hot on their heels.

4. Philadelphia Flyers
Why They'll Finish Fourth: There's no doubt that the Flyers wildly underachieved last year in the regular season, then overachieved during the playoffs. So which team will show up for the 2010-2011 NHL regular season? It's questionable how much they've improved during the off-season, as longtime (yet oft-injured) sniper Simon Gagne was sent to Tampa to make room for the talented (yet enigmatic) Nikolai Zherdev. Replacing the awful third defensive pairing of Krajicek & Parent, who were so bad and fell so far out of favor with the coaching staff that they were playing around six-to-eight minutes a night by the time the Cup finals rolled around, is a huge plus. Veteran Sean O'Donnell was good in a limited role for the Kings and provides more locker-room stability to a team that probably needed it at times last season, and Andrej Meszaros will come over from Tampa with a chip on his shoulder. They have probably the best top 6 in the Eastern Conference, and are a strong contender for best defensive corps in the entire NHL as well. I think it will be a very close race between the Flyers, Penguins, and possibly the Devils, but I see the Flyers falling just a tad short of their cross-state rivals. Still, this will be a very, very good team.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Zherdev is the ultimate X-factor here. If he's come back from the Kontential league in Russia (and it's important to note that while he was okay there, he didn't exactly tear it up, either) foaming at the mouth in anticipation of his last real shot in the NHL, the sky could be the limit for this team. At the very least you would expect him to be ultra-motivated whenever they're playing the Rangers, but if he can put up a 70- to 80-point campaign (and he has the talent to do it, no doubt about that), they will almost certainly win the Atlantic division.

Why They Could Finish Lower: One word- goaltending. After how the Stanley Cup Final ended, with Michael Leighton allowing that infamous goal by Patrick Kane from that awful angle, everyone expected the Flyers to go look for a veteran like Nabakov or Turco. Instead, the Flyers have stuck with Leighton & Boucher and will hope they can take them at least as far as they did last season. It's a risky chance to take, and it could come back to bite them very badly if Leighton returns to his pre-2010 form and Boucher can't pick up the pieces this time.

5. New Jersey Devils
Why They'll Finish Fifth: It's a little hard for me to fathom that the addition of a full year of Ilya Kovalchuk will actually see the Devils *drop* three spots, but when I look at what Boston, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia have done, I have to put them here. I also don't really like what the Devils have done with replacing Paul Martin with Volchenkov & Tallinder. Neither is anywhere near as good as Martin at moving the puck up the ice, and if a guy like Andy Greene takes a step back from his career year last season, then they'll really be in trouble. And let's not forget they still have to shed around $3.5-4 million dollars of salary (they're $3 million over the cap right now, and they have to have at least league-minimum replacements for whoever they do decide to move) thanks to the Kovalchuk deal. But this is still the New Jersey Devils, and I'm still not picking against them to finish well inside the top 8 of the very weak Eastern Conference

Why They Could Finish Higher: A full year of Kovalchuk could be an even bigger boost to the Devils than I'm anticipating. Plus, Zach Parise is in a contract year. That could be an off-season headache for the Devils, but as far as this season goes, it should be a huge positive. If the new defense gels and Marty plays like Marty, they could easily climb back to their third straight Atlantic Division title.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Does Kovalchuk really want to win, or is he content with his $100 million? Could the loss of Paul Martin hurt even more than we're anticipating? Is this FINALLY the year Marty starts to play like his age? It would take an awful lot of bad things happening for me to see the Devils missing the playoffs, but a drop into the 6th-8th range seems possible if enough things go wrong for them. Make no mistake about it, there are question marks about this team, big-time.

6. Tampa Bay Lightning
Why They'll Finish Sixth: Stevie Y has done an admirable job since taking over as GM in Tampa. He practically robbed the Flyers for Simon Gagne and then made a pair of very astute signings in bringing in goalie Dan Ellis to push the often-underachieving Mike Smith as well as bringing back former playoff hero Pavel Kubina to help Tampa's weak blueline (and replace the wildly ineffective Andrej Meszaros). Adding Gagne to what they already had up front should make for one of the most dynamic and exciting top-six forward groups in the entire NHL.

Why They Could Finish Higher: I don't expect Vinny Lecavailer to have a monster bounce-back season or anything, but if he does then Tampa could climb up even higher. And there's also Victor Hedman, who could build off a so-so rookie campaign with a very good sophomore season. If one or both of those thing happen, maybe they'll be in the mix for the fourth seed and home-ice in the first round.

Why They Could Finish Lower: The blueline, although improved with Kubina, is still not going to be confused with anything resembling a defensive powerhouse. This is a team that will live and die by its goal-scoring, and if Steven Stamkos can't build on his huge sophomore season, the Lightning could struggle mightily. Goaltending is still a huge question mark as well, as Dan Ellis has been good, even great at times with the Predators, but the fact remains that he lost his starting job in Nashville. And Mike Smith has been nothing short of a disaster since coming over from Dallas.

7. New York Rangers
Why They'll Finish Seventh: I know I'm going to be accused of homering here (and wait until you see my West picks!), but I really think this is a playoff team. Frolov should be a man possessed on a one-year deal with a spot in the NHL on the line, and as non-committed and checked-out as he may have seemed at times with the Kings last year, people forget that he scored his 19 regular-season goals while largely in a checking-line role. On a first- or second-line role with the Blueshirts, he could easily get back to being a 30-goal scorer. Even at 25, this team could sneak in. The way blueliners Marc Staal & Michael Rozsival played during the Rangers' frantic race to the finish line is very encouraging; if they can translate that over and play that way consistently this year, the Rangers should be in good shape to avoid a second straight season without playoff hockey.

Why They Could Finish Higher: It's all about the kids. The Rangers have quietly amassed a pretty decent crop of young talent, probably the best group of kids this organization has had in almost two decades. If one or more of the Derek Stepan, Evgeny Grachev, or Ryan McDonaghs of this team can grab a roster spot and have a great rookie campaign, this team will be surprisingly good and may even battle for home-ice in the first round. Michael Del Zotto will need to avoid a sophomore slump and continue to improve his all-around defensive game for that to happen too, but there's a lot of young talent who could surprise people.

Why They Could Finish Lower: There's still a lot of question marks here. If Frolov underwhelms and the offense stays cold, they will miss the playoffs for a second-straight year. And if Marian Gaborik's dreaded injuries return, this is almost undoubtedly a draft lottery team.

8. Toronto Maple Leafs
Why They'll Finish Eighth: Ah, and now for my first real ballsy prediction. The prediction that has gotten the exact same reaction from everyone I've told it to so far ("WHAT?!")- the Toronto Maple Leafs, after five long and horrible seasons, will finally return to the playoffs. I'm making this prediction assuming that, like Colorado & Phoenix last year in the West, something wacky and unexpected will happen. And I don't think it's too much of a stretch to suggest that a full year of new captain Dion Phaneuf & goaltender J.S. Giguere will help improve the Leafs' defensive fortunes drastically. Sure, they're gonna have trouble scoring goals, but they've made progress there too with the additions of guys like Kris Versteeg & Colby Armstrong. I really think Phaneuf will have a huge, bounceback year; maybe not quite to the level of his Norris-nominee early Calgary years, but at least closer to it than his last couple of seasons were. Also helping the Leafs is that I believe the rest of the teams in the Northeast, outside of Boston of course, have all taken significant steps back (but we'll get into that later). Playing in a weakened Division never hurts your playoff chances. So with all that said, I think this team will surprise people.

Why They Could Finish Higher: If any of their forwards catch fire and gives them more goals than I'm expecting, they could conceivably climb up a few more spots. Realistically speaking, sixth is about as high as they're probably capable of, but I'm sure even that would have people doing backflips in Leafs Nation. Kris Versteeg, with all the ice-time he's likely to get, may have enough talent to be a 30-goal scorer. And Nazem Kadri may have a Calder-type season.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Of course, it's very possible that none of those things happen and the Leafs are still awful. Maybe Versteeg pouts, or Kadri is a training camp bust, or Phaneuf takes another step back (or even sideways; he must be better than last year if this team is going to make the playoffs). The Leafs are, of course, far from a lock, and if none of the pieces come together they will be out of the playoffs yet again.

9. Montreal Canadiens
Why They'll Finish Ninth: Everyone seems aware that the Habs grossly overachieved last season in the playoffs and that they traded away playoff hero Jaroslav Halak. What's getting less press, at least to me, is the number of other performers the Habs let walk as free agents. Glen Metropolit, he of the 10 regular-season power play goals, ended up in Europe. Why you wouldn't re-sign a guy who was tied for the team lead in PP goals, especially when almost all of your offense came from that 2nd-place power play (they were one of the worst teams in the league at scoring 5-on-5), I honestly have no idea. It couldn't have cost you very much if he ended up having to take a European deal. Also allowed to walk were useful center Dominic Moore and power play specialist Marc-Andre Bergeron. The Habs are counting on young players being able to step in and fill those roles right away. I personally think there will be some growing pains. Andrei Markov being out until at least November and possibly into December will hurt too; the Habs are 195-115-41 with him in the lineup, but just 19-35-7 without him. So I think this team will just barely miss the playoffs, obviously hugely disappointing to the fans of Montreal after the run they had last season.

Why They Could Finish Higher: If PK Subban is ready for prime-time and can step up and fill the early void of Markov, as well as the void of Bergeron on the power play, then the Habs will make the playoffs. Of course, Carey Price must play better too, but that's not as big of a factor as people think. While Price's win-loss record was bad last season, he still had a 2.77 GAA and a .912 save percentage. Neither are bad numbers. If the team gives him some goal support this year, he'll probably be fine.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Now with that said, Price could still be a complete disaster, crumbling under the immense pressure of the Halak trade. If that happens, the Habs could be a draft lottery team.

10. Carolina Hurricanes
Why They'll Finish Tenth: The Hurricanes are going young and cheap out of necessity, and it's disappointing to see one of the NHL's few Southern markets where you can really say there's usually a sense of excitement for the team have to go in this direction. Still, there's good pieces in place in Carolina, obviously starting with Eric Staal and Cam Ward. But the Canes' defense is ultimately too heavy on offensive types without any real defensive studs to shutdown the other teams' top players, and that will probably be what costs them a playoff spot.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Well, picking the Canes to miss the playoffs this year is dicey if only because they've followed a pretty specific good year-bad year-good year-bad year alternating pattern for the past few seasons. If the pattern holds up, they'll make the playoffs this year. And it wouldn't shock me to see this team get hot enough to do it with some of the great young talent they have, especially up front with guys like Brandon Sutter & Drayson Bowman. By picking them tenth I think they'll be in the mix right up until the end, so I could easily see them squeezing out a playoff berth.

Why They Could Finish Lower: That blueline really is terrible. Tim Gleason is a #4 defenseman on 25 or 26 other teams, and yet he's playing #1 minutes for Carolina. Joe Corvo looked positively awful for the Capitals in his own end at times last year after he was traded, so I'm not so sure re-signing him is a positive. And Anton Babchuk will be great for the Canes' power play that was 20th in the league last year, but he is an adventure in his own end. Throw in Cam Ward's recent injury troubles and you have a recipe for a possible draft lottery team if enough things go wrong.

11. Buffalo Sabres
Why They'll Finish Eleventh: I think a better question to ask is, how did this team ever finish third last year? At times in their first-round playoff series, they looked completely out-matched and out-played by a sub-par Boston Bruins squad. They have a collection of forwards who have largely underachieved- not a single one of them strike fear into opposing goalies' hearts (maybe Thomas Vanek on his best days, but those seemed to be few and far between last season). They got things done largely on a solid, if unspectacular, team defense. So of course they allowed 2 of their top 4 D-men to walk in unrestricted free-agency. And they replaced them.....with 1 guy. Whose name is Jordan Leopold. Yeah. Good luck with that, Buffalo. This is not a playoff team....

Why They Could Finish Higher: ....unless Ryan Miller stands on his head again. Which is, of course, always possible. But I'm one to think he might take a slight step back this season. How could you not, if you're Ryan Miller, be incredibly disappointed with what the team has done this off-season? How could you feel amped up to play behind this team? Especially after the exhausting year he had last year, I would not be shocked to see Miller look positively uninterested. But if he really does decide to stand on his head again, the Sabres will be right back in the playoffs and maybe even back in Northeast contention (though I really don't think they can keep up with the Bruins).

Why They Could Finish Lower: If Ryan Miller gets injured for any serious length of time, this is a draft lottery team.

12. Ottawa Senators
Why They'll Finish Twelfth: The Senators were another team that wildly overachieved last season, at least as far as the regular season goes (they put up a decent fight against the Penguins in the playoffs, but I wouldn't call that overachieving per say). Their off-season was an interesting one, losing several spare parts that came over at the trade deadline and did have a positive impact (C Matt Cullen & D Andy Sutton), as well as the massively disappointing Jonathen Cheechoo. But perhaps no loss will sting as much as losing shot-blocker extraordinaire Anton Volchenkov. Remember, this is an Ottawa team that has a lot of question marks in goal. Neither Pascal Leclaire or Brian Elliott was consistently able to play well for the team last season; both had serious up and down swings. Having the huge Volchenkov out there blocking shots like a madman was only a positive. Without him, the goalies will be asked to do even more, and that's asking too much of them at this point. The addition of Sergei Gonchar will probably help last year's anemic power play, but one needs to only look at how horribly Gonchar played defensively for the Penguins in last year's playoffs (at one point he let a Habs forward literally walk around him, like in slow-motion) to see why that could be a complete disaster in Ottawa. They won't know how important Volchenkov was to this team until it's too late and they're back to being a non-playoff team.

Why They Could Finish Higher: If the other defensemen step up and play well enough defensively to make up for Volchenkov's loss, the Senators could be back in the playoff mix. Good, consistent goaltending would also go a long way to making them a playoff team again.

Why They Could Finish Lower: There's a lot of injury-prone guys on this roster. Alfredsson is getting up there in age now, Jason Spezza hasn't been able to stay healthy. Neither have Kovalev or Michalek or Gonchar. Injuries could make this team fall even further in the Eastern Conference then I'm anticipating.

13. New York Islanders
Why They'll Finish Thirteenth: So the Islanders want to copy the Washington/Chicago model of building through the draft, the same model that LA & Phoenix are currently using to great success. Let's assume there's a handbook out there, "How to Build Your Team Through the Draft". Apparently when they got to the chapter titled "Now You Augment Your Core With Some Outside Players", they stopped reading at the title, put down the book, and started frantically calling every player they could think of....that was still unsigned on July 3rd. They didn't bother to get into the actual paragraph, which would have explained to them the utter pointlessness of signing guys like Rangers washout PA Parenteau, practically immobile slug Zenon Konopka, Milan 'The Blue Jackets kept the receipt' Jurcina, or rapidly aging veteran Mark Eaton. That's not augmenting your core, that's embracing a role as the NHL's witness protection program (hat tip to the Puck Podcast's Doug Stolhand for that one). As great as John Tavares may be this year, there's almost nothing else here around him.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Maybe some of their kids are ahead of schedule. If Calvin de Haan is ready to make this team out of training camp, that would give the Isles at least a playoff-caliber top 3 D-men, behind veteran Mark Streit and recent pick-up James Wisniewski. And if Swiss junior wunderkid Nino Niederreiter is a year ahead of schedule too, they could make one young and dangerous top line with Tavares & Matt Moulson. But I tend to believe these kids are still another year away. I know, Isles fans, it must suck to be told "wait until next year" year after year. But they're getting there. Just very, very slowly.

Why They Could Finish Lower: If Matt Moulson's 30-goals were a mirage after all, this team could be even worse than I'm expecting.

14. Atlanta Thrashers
Why They'll Finish Fourteenth: I have no idea what's going on in Atlanta. You pick up one of the best young power forwards in the game from the defending Stanley Cup champions because of their salary cap issues, and then you immediately move him back to defense?! Ridiculous. One only needs to watch Brent Sopel's interview after getting traded to Atlanta to figure out that these ex-Blackhawks are not exactly happy to be headed south, either. And lost in all the Blackhawk bonanza is all of the players from last year's near-miss squad that are gone, many of them huge offensive contributors. Long-term this team is headed in the right direction, but one has to wonder just how long they may even have left in Atlanta.

Why They Could Finish Higher: If I'm wrong about the ex-Blackhawks and the Byfuglien-to-defense experiment ends quickly, maybe they can get back in the playoff race. I still don't think this is a playoff team, though.

Why They Could Finish Lower: I need to give a reason why they could finish 15th instead of 14th? Uh....because they're not a very good hockey team, maybe?

15. Florida Panthers
Why They'll Finish Fifteenth: Dale Tallon has done a remarkable job tearing apart this team of underachievers in record time. Now comes the hard part: asking these poor fans to sit through another year of losing hockey. At least it's for a good cause this year, and at least they know it's coming.

Why They Could Finish Higher: I guess they could move up a few spots if Chris Higgins finally finds his long-lost scoring touch, Steve Bernier remembers what a "power forward" is, and Michael Grabner plays better after he's taken out of the Vancouver fishbowl. But even if everything goes right for this team, I can't see them possibly making the playoffs. Then again I'm sure people said that last year about Phoenix & Colorado, so I guess anything's possible.

Why They Could Finish Lower: If Tomas Voukon gets injured, this team is in so much trou....oh, uh, nevermind.


Back with the West soon!

Absurdly Early Predictions on the 2010-2011 NHL Season

Here are the absurdly early predictions from CIA Radio's season finale, in which myself, Ms. Gee, and Mr. Williams picked all the division winners, the conference finals, and the Stanley Cup champion. This way in case any of us are right we have RECORDED PROOF~! that we did, in fact, call it first.

I got Quinlan's off the phone with him a few hours later. And swear to christ he did in fact pick the Islanders to win the Atlantic and go to the Eastern Conference finals. He wasn't kidding. He really believes this will happen.

I should also note that we did all these predictions under the assumption that Kovalchuk is going to the Kings. I still think that's going to happen until he officially signs with another team, but should it not I would imagine our next round of predictions on the eve of the regular season will look very different. But considering 3 out of 4 of us picked them to win the Cup next year (oops, spoiled it!) it looks like we all agree: adding Kovalchuk to the Kings will make them a superpower. Not that they're far off to begin with; in their excellent posts comparing the "core" of the Blackhawks to the other big Western Conference teams, the Kings were the team that Second City Hockey was most worried about. It'll be interesting as we get closer to the season to see if our consensus matches up with the consensus of the rest of the hockey world.

Alright, here's all the picks. And then after I make my Cup pick, I'll tell you why I DIDN'T pick some other teams.

Atlantic Division
John, Emily, & Sean- Penguins
Quinlan- Islanders

Central Division
John & Emily- Blackhawks
Sean & Quinlan- Red Wings

Northeast Division
John & Quinlan- Bruins
Emily- Canadiens
Sean- Sabres

Northwest Divison
John & Quinlan- Canucks
Emily & Sean- Avalanche

Southeast Division
John, Emily, Quinlan & Sean- Capitals

Pacific Divison
John & Emily- Kings
Sean & Quinlan- Sharks

Eastern Conference Finals
John- Penguins over Flyers
Emily & Sean- Penguins over Capitals
Quinlan- Capitals over Islanders

Western Conference Finals
John- Kings over Red Wings
Emily- Kings over Blackhawks
Sean- Red Wings over Avalanche
Quinlan- Kings over Canucks

Stanley Cup Finals
John & Emily- Kings over Penguins
Sean- Penguins over Red Wings (god help me if I have to watch that shit again)
Quinlan- Kings over Capitals


So that's everybody's picks. Really quick, now I'm gonna say why I DON'T think these teams will win the Cup:

Blackhawks- Might as well start with the defending champs. Lack of depth, Pat Kane looking like he's not going to be sober by training camp, etc. will all combine to do in the Hawks, probably in the second round. But don't worry, Hawks Nation, they'll be back.

Penguins- My Eastern Conference winners due to their much-improved defense, I don't think they have the goal-scoring to compete with LA, especially on the wings. Crosby is great and all but last year proved that one man can't do it alone. And as great as their much-improved defense is, they still don't have that one "superstar" defender like Drew Doughty.

Red Wings- My Western Conference runners-up, I just think they're too old to get past the young, hungry Kings. I honestly see this year going pretty similar to last year for them; an OK regular-season hurt by injuries, gets hot down the stretch but not hot enough to catch the Hawks for the Central, etc. Difference this year is I think the team pulls closer together to try and get Nik Lidstrom one more Cup before he retires next off-season, so that gets them past the second-round and back into the Conference Finals this time. But no further.

Flyers- My Eastern Conference runners-up, there's no question they're still a great team. But goaltending and having too many centers who can't play wing will ultimately do them in against the deeper, better Pennsylvania team.

Devils- Assuming they don't re-sign Kovalchuk, they won't win the Atlantic this time. They'll get in because they always do, but Jason Arnott? Really New Jersey? Another first-round exit's in the cards.

Canucks- I flirted with giving them the conference final position over Detroit, but I'm not buying into that defensive corps just yet. Like SCH said, they've got the deepest pool of #3 defensemen in the league, but no real elite top-pairing guys. Dan Hamhuis was a #3 on a good Nashville team, but Keith Ballard was a #3 on a bad Florida team. So I'm not buying in. And obviously Luongo still has done nothing in the playoffs yet, so that doesn't help.

Sharks- Kicking Nabakov to the curb in favor of a guy who's never, ever been playoff-tested does not suddenly mean they're on their way over the hump. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Capitals- Like the Canucks, I flirted with giving them the Eastern runner-up spot over Philly, but like the Canucks I'm not ready to buy in yet either. They flamed out in the playoffs in epic fashion and are now basically San Jose East, and their brilliant plan to change all that appeared to be.....well, nothing, actually. Great plan. Until Mike Green realizes he has to change his game in the playoffs and/or John Carlson steps up and makes him irrelevant, they're destined to first- and second-round exits.

Bruins- This is my dark horse. I love the Nathan Horton move; he seems legitimately excited to be there and if he can stay healthy and put up between 30-40 goals, they will be a contender. They were the #1 defensive team in the NHL last year, all they were missing was some goal-scoring. Yes, the Philly collapse will sting for a while, but you can also point to some key injuries and kind of explain away at least a bit of it (obviously not all of it). Plus, the real X-factor here is what, exactly, will Tyler Seguin (who I still maintain will be better than Taylor Hall) bring to the Bruins in his rookie season? It will be fun to watch, and I think if it all comes together the Bruins could be a serious Cup-contending team, but at this juncture I still feel like they're another year away. We'll see.

Oh god, I got so excited for this season just writing all that. Can we all just pretend it's October now? Please?

Third Round Prediction Standings

Here's our picks for the conference finals along with the updated standings. This time, the stakes were 2 points for the winner as well as 2 additional points for also correctly guessing the amount of games it took them.


Eastern Conference
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Habs in 6 (+0)
Emily: Habs in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Flyers in 7 (+2)


Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 4
John: Blackhawks in 5 (+2)
Emily: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)


Standings After Third Round
1. Quinlan- 13 points
2. Emily- 12 points
3. John- 8 points


Ah yes, things are looking quite desperate for yours truly. But don't worry true believers- there's still a very, very slim chance I can catch them! For the Stanley Cup Finals will feature the ultimate stakes- 3 points for the correct winner, and a staggering 4 points for the correct amount of games it takes them to claim Lord Stanley's hardware! Who will come out on top? We'll find out soon!

Second Round Prediction Standings

Here's our picks for the second round and the updated standings. Remember, in this round it was 1 point for the winner, 2 points for the correct games.


Eastern Conference

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Emily: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Habs in 7 (+3)

(6) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 7
John: Bruins in 7 (+0)
Emily: Flyers in 7 (+3)
Quinlan: Flyers in 6 (+1)


Western Conference

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Sharks in 5
John: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Emily: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Red Wings in 5 (+0)

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (3) Vancouver Canucks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Emily: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)


Standings After Second Round
1. Emily- 10 points
2. Quinlan- 9 points
3. John- 6 points


For the conference finals we raise the stakes yet again. This time, 2 points will be awarded for both the winning team AND for the correct amount of games (provided you picked the right winner, of course).

And yes, even though I'm posting these now, the predictions were made prior to any games being played in the third round.


Eastern Conference Finals
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John- Habs in 6
Emily- Habs in 7
Quinlan- Flyers in 7

Western Conference Finals
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
John- Hawks in 5
Emily- Hawks in 6
Quinlan- Hawks in 6

First Round Prediction Standings

With the first round in the books, it's time to take a look at where the three hosts of CIA Radio ultimately stand. Needless to say, many of the gigantic upsets took us all by surprise, as you'll see in just a moment.

Now, the way I'm doing this scoring system is simple: each of us gets 1 point for getting the winning team right, and then another point if we also got the amount of games it took right. In each round the stakes will go up: in the conference semis, it will still be 1 point for the winner but now it will be 2 points for getting the game number, 2 points for the winner & 2 points for the game # in the conference finals, and finally 3 points for the winner & the game # in the Stanley Cup final.


Eastern Conference

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Caps in 4 (+0)
Emily: Caps in 4 (+0)
Quinlan: Caps in 4 (+0)
Thoughts: The only series where we were all in complete agreement in both the winning team & the number of games, and of course we were all 100% incorrect. To say this came as a shocker would be an understatement; even before Game 6, I remember remarking to both of them that all of us would pick up 1 point here. No one saw the Caps' epic collapse coming, but considering it was a record-setting collapse at that, I don't think anyone can really blame us.

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Devils in 5 (+0)
Emily: Devils in 5 (+0)
Quinlan: Devils in 6 (+0)
Thoughts: We're off to a fantastic start, aren't we? Again all three of us got this one wrong, too, as we all put too much stock in the goaltending and not even stock in the Flyers' 5-1-0 regular season record against the Devils. At this point, I think I'm going to have to adopt a rule for the Devils- don't pick them to get out of the first round until they actually manage to do it again, no matter how good their regular season was.

(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
Actual Result: Bruins in 6
John: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Emily: Buffalo in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Thoughts: In another series where we were all wrong, I suppose you can say Emily was the closest to being right; on the podcast when we were discussing this series, she kept insisting it would be a very, very close series while Quinlan & I thought it would be a cakewalk for the Sabres. The fact is, Boston found some goal-scoring at the best possible time, and considering how good defenesively they were already that makes them pretty scary.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
Actual Result: Penguins in 6
John: Ottawa in 7 (+0)
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6 (+2)
Thoughts: Leave it to me to pick my only upset in the only Eastern conference series that DOESN'T HAVE AN UPSET. Of course, Emily & Quinlan played it safe and picked the favorite again, and they finally have a correct prediction as a result. Crosby turned up his play by about seven-million times and Fleury & the defense seemed to get better as time goes on, which was enough to squeak by a fired-up Ottawa squad.

Western Conference

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
Actual Result: Sharks in 6
John: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Emily: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Colorado in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Even though Emily & I both pick up a point and Quinlan gets nothing, in a way his prediction was probably closer to being right than ours was! We thought it would be a four-and-done situation, while Quinlan thought it would be a very close series, and he turned out to be right. Unfortunately, Colorado didn't have what it took to take advantage of some very, very good bounces and finish off the Sharks, who managed to get that monkey off their back somewhat with a huge win.

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Chicago in 6 (+2)
Emily: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Quinlan: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Actual Thoughts: Yeah, my first two-pointer! I had a feeling this series was going to be a close one and it certainly was, and the Predators have nothing to be ashamed of when they were oh-so-close to a 3-1 lead. The Blackhawks simply had too much talent in the end, but they can't afford to not show up for a game in the next round like they did against the Preds in Game 3.

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
Actual Result: Canucks in 6
John: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Emily: Vancouver in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Thoughts: Speaking of teams who were very, very close to a 3-1 lead, my poor Kings almost pulled off the upset, but they simply did not have the goaltending in the end to get it done, despite a great start from Jonathan Quick. The third-period collapse in Game 4 was obviously the turning point, and it all went downhill for the Kings from there.

(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Red Wings in 7
John: Detroit in 5 (+1)
Emily: Detroit in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Here's yet another series where we get a point each and Quinlan gets nothing, but Quinlan was probably closer to being right than we were. We both thought this would be an easy out for the Wings, but Quinlan had this as a very close series and he turned out to be right. The Red Wings had way too much talent to go out in the first round, but the 'Yotes put up a hell of a fight.


Standings After First Round
1. Emily - 6 points
2. John - 5 points
3. Quinlan - 4 points

Alright folks, there's your standings after one round. For now Ms. Emily Gee is our leader, but there's still plenty of hockey left to be played, and thus plenty of more bad predictions to be made too. Tonight we'll be back on the air with CIA Radio, where all three of us will make our picks for the second round! You can join in on the fun by clicking here starting at around 7:00 pm EST to join our live chat. There's a number on there where you can call in and talk to us on the show as well. We'll be starting at 7:30 pm EST. Hope to see some of you there!

CIA Radio Returns! Plus, listing everyone's playoff picks

CIA Radio returned tonight with 90+ minutes of hockey talk! Along with my co-hosts Emily Gee & Bryan Quinlan, we broke down all of the playoff matchups as well as talking about the changes in Tampa Bay. Check us out! From this point forward, we will be on the air each and every Monday night at 9 pm EST to talk about the playoffs as they go on and make more predictions each round. I'll try to remember to post the link on here so you can join our live chat, listen to us live, and even call in and talk with us if you want.
http://tinyurl.com/y6nu6rz


While I listen back to the show, I'm taking down everyone's predictions (and yes, I know I changed a few of mine from my blogs, I think only LA-Vancouver actually but maybe I'm wrong) so I can keep track of it and see who got it right and who got it very, very wrong. After the first round I'll update our standings and see who came closest to getting it right as far as who won and in how many games (since many of our predictions ended up being the same other than how long it would take).

Eastern Conference

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John: Caps in 4
Emily: Caps in 4
Quinlan: Caps in 4

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
John: Devils in 5
Emily: Devils in "5 or 6" (I'll call it 5)
Quinlan: Devils in 6

(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
John: Buffalo in 5
Emily: Buffalo in 7
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
John: Ottawa in 7
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6


Western Conference

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
John: San Jose in 4
Emily: San Jose in 4
Quinlan: Colorado in 7

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
John: Chicago in 6
Emily: Chicago in 5
Quinlan: Chicago in 5

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
John: Vancouver in 7
Emily: Vancouver in 6
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7

(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
John: Detroit in 5
Emily: Detroit in 4
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7


Finalists

Special Guest Mr. Sean Williams!
East: Washington over New Jersey in 5 games
West: Detroit over Chicago in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Detroit in 6 games

Quinlan
East: Washington over Buffalo in 5 games
West: Chicago over Vancouver in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Chicago in 7 games

Emily
East: Washington over New Jersey in "5 or 6" (once again, we'll say 5) games
West: Chicago over Detroit in...uh....she forgot to say. I'll get it out of her.
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "blank" games.

John
East: Washington over New Jersey in 4 games
West: Chicago over Detroit in 5 games
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "5 or 6" (oh no I caught the Emily disease! we'll say 6)

Breaking Down the Playoff Chances: Western Conference

Welcome back to Center Ice Addict! Today, we're going to try something a little bit different. As you probably know, we usually break down the day's schedule in the NHL and tell you which games are worth watching. But taking a look at the schedule for today, there really isn't much of a point in doing that; of the 11 games on tap for today, only 1 (Phoenix @ Nashville) is between teams currently in playoff position. And as great as the hockey as been this year, there's something that's become increasingly obvious as the weeks go by. The playoff races are, to be quite frank, the worst we've seen in years.

For all the talk of parity in today's NHL, the fact is in both Conferences, most of the teams have little to no shot of making the playoffs. There is real separation heading into the final weeks of the regular season. In the West, 9th place Calgary sits 4 points behind Detroit, and with their respective schedules that will be a very difficult point differential to make up down the stretch. 10th place Dallas sits 9 points back, and Detroit has a game in hand on all the teams sitting 10th-14th. While all those teams are still *mathematically* in it, realistically they haven't got a shot in hell.

The East, for all its mediocrity compared to the West (those some 10th place Stars would be tied for 8th if they were in the Eastern Conference, and virtually everyone other than Columbus & Edmonton would still be in it in the East), isn't much better. 8th place Boston sits 3 points ahead of 9th place Atlanta, and 5 points ahead of the 10th place Rangers, with a game in hand on both. As a Ranger fan I do want to point out that our schedule, despite being road-heavy, is actually a lot easier than Boston's. If the Rangers can beat the Devils tonight, they have a real chance to go on a run against non-playoff teams: they'll play at the Maple Leafs, Islanders, Lightning, Panthers, Buffalo (the only playoff team here), then home to the Leafs again. If they can make hay on that schedule and win 5 of 6 or even run the table, then they may be able to make this race close again. Realistically, they're still out of it until they get it done, and Boston still has their fate in their own hands.

With all that said, the "parity" that we're seeing this year in the NHL has been replaced a bit by three real "tiers' of teams. You've got your Elite Tier, the teams at the top of the conferences who have put a ton of separation from everyone else (and one could argue Washington and their 108 points, which have already tied a franchise record with 9 games left to play, should be their own tier). Washington, Jersey, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo would be your elite teams in the East, with Chicago, San Jose, Vancouver, & shockingly Phoenix being the elite teams in the West. Then you have your Playoff Tier, the teams in each conference who aren't quite in striking distance of the elite teams, but who have put a great deal of separation between themselves and the non-playoff teams in each conference. Ottawa, Montreal, Philadelphia, and Boston comprise this tier in the East, while Los Angeles, Colorado, Nashville, and Detroit (maybe Calgary) comprise this tier in the West. Finally, you've got your non-playoff teams, which are everyone else.

This is what I like to call the New Parity in the NHL. Other than Washington, who like I said should be their own tier, in the East you've got the Pens, Devils, and Sabres all separated by just 1 point. In the West, Chicago, San Jose, Phoenix, and Vancouver are only separated by 4 points. Then when you get to the playoff teams, in the East 5th place Ottawa and 8th place Boston are only separated by 5 points, and in the West it's even tighter as 5th place LA and 8th place Detroit are only separated by 3 points. Finally, the non-playoff teams are just as tight: 2 points are all that separates 10th place Dallas and 13th place Anaheim in the West, while 5 points separate the 10th place Rangers and 14th place Islanders.

So while things are still tight in today's NHL, there's also a lot more separation than there are in years past, and that makes this year's playoff race seem a bit more, well, boring than usual. Like I said in my last blog, how excited can you really get for a race for 8th in the East when your "reward" is playing the most dominant regular-season team the NHL has seen in almost a decade? In the West, you have the opposite problem: all the teams in the playoffs right now seem so good and seem like they can knock off anyone, so when those eight teams just keep winning games, who could you really see dropping out of it so Calgary can get in?

But there is light at the end of this tunnel. The trade-off for having a less-interesting stretch drive than we might usually have is we may have one of the most exciting playoffs ever coming up in just a few short weeks. And that's saying something coming off one of the most exciting playoffs in almost two decades last year, but this year's has all the potential to top it. The East may not be as interesting as last year (it really looks like Washington's conference to lose, but we'll get more into that next time), but can you ever recall a time when the West was this wide open? You've got 4 teams atop the West all within 4 points of each other, and you've got an 8th place team in Detroit right now that NO ONE wants to play in the first-round. Any single one of these eight teams could win the Western conference.

So here's what we're going to do today. We're going to take a look at all of the teams currently in the playoffs, break down where they were expected to finish before the season started, and then break down what they could do in the playoffs. Each team will get a High and a Low, in another words where we think their potential is and where they could flame out. We'll list their records, overall, home, and away, and we'll also list their rankings among all 30 teams in the NHL in both offense & defense (goals for/goals against per game). Finally, we'll talk briefly about what their possible playoff match-ups and which ones would most benefit them. Alright folks, with all this intro out of the way, let's get started in the Western conference!


Western Conference

1st: Chicago Blackhawks
(46-19-7, 99 points, 27-7-3 at home, 19-12-4 away, 3rd in Offense, 4th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Cup Favorite
High: Stanley Cup champions
Low: Second-round exit

The Blackhawks went into this season with the high expectations of winning their first Stanley Cup since 1961, and they've been right at the top of the Central division & Western conference standings since pretty much the season began. People had issue with their goaltending heading into the season, and some still do, but for the most part the duo of Huet & Niemi have gotten it done in the regular season. The big question heading into the post-season is who will be the starter, but the Hawks will at least be able to comfort themselves with the knowledge that if whoever they go with flames out, they've still got the other one to hand the ball to.

Even though the Blackhawks are currently matched-up with the Red Wings in the first round, I can't see them going out any earlier than the second. They're simply too good on both sides of the puck to get upset in the first round. A second round upset is possible if their goaltending, which just isn't playoff-tested, gives out on them. But realistically, this is probably as close as the West has to a favorite to make it to at least the Conference finals, and until someone knocks them off they have to be considered the favorite to win the West.

Possible playoff match-ups: Detroit, Nashville, Colorado
Wants to play: Colorado
Wants to avoid: Detroit
(The Hawks have had their problems with Nashville's trapping style over the years, but Detroit still has to be the most feared team to the Blackhawks and especially their fans. Despite Chicago's mastery over the Central this season, the Red Wings have already shown in recent weeks that, when healthy, they're still very capable of playing the Blackhawks evenly. I would still favorite the Hawks in any of these potential match-ups, including against the Wings, but there's no doubt they'd like to avoid facing Detroit in the first round if it's at all possible.)


2nd place: San Jose Sharks
(44-19-10, 98 points, 22-6-8 at home, 22-13-2 on the road, 4th in Offense, 9th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: ???
High Expectation: Conference Final
Low Expectation: First-round exit

The question marks are pretty much what everyone put down for the Sharks heading into the season. Every year this team looks great on paper, and then everyone year they find a way to flame out in the first or second round of the playoffs. So finally, almost no one picked them to win the Cup this year, saying they wouldn't be fooled again by San Jose, even after they retooled a lot of their roster, striped Marleau of the C, and acquired Dany Heatley from Ottawa. The Sharks at first did that usual San Jose domination of the regular-season, but they're recently coming off a six-game winless streak (their longest since November of 2005, and five straight losses came in regulation) that was just snapped this past week in Minnesota.

The problems with the Sharks are numerous: despite the fact that their leaders continue to bang the drum in interviews that "this isn't the same team as last year", who were their leaders last year? Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Rob Blake, Dan Boyle....you guessed it, they're all on the team again this year. The only difference is the aforementioned Heatley, who no one has ever confused with a clutch performer. So does changing around a bunch of role-players on the lower lines really mean this is a totally different team? I don't buy it.

There's an argument to be made that all these recent struggles is actually a good thing for a team that got it easy for most of the season, but I don't buy that, either. First of all, even though they didn't lose so many in a row last season, they had their fair share of struggles around this time last year, too, and look how well that worked out for them. Second of all, the big two problems among this team- lack of effort from backchecking and defensive-zone coverage amongst their "big guys" and sub-par/inconsistent goaltending from Nabakov (ask Russia how well he handled clutch games for them in the Olympics)- aren't just magically going to go away once the playoffs start. So that's why the farthest I can see this team going is the Conference final. I just don't see how, in a 7-game series, these guys can beat Chicago or Vancouver. Hell, I think I'd favor teams like Detroit, Phoenix, and LA against them, too. They could easily get bounced in the first-round again, and then I just have no idea where you go with this team. It might be time to blow this thing up, let Marleau walk in free-agency, and see if you can trade Jumbo Joe and let him be someone else's problem in the playoffs.

Possible playoff match-ups: Nashville, Colorado, Detroit
Wants to play: Nashville
Wants to avoid: Detroit
(Seeing a pattern here? No one wants to play the Red Wings in the first round. The Sharks have had, for the most part, an easy time with the Predators this season, including that five-goal 3rd period explosion at home. The Wings, on the other hand, have beaten up on the Sharks all season, even when they had a ton of people out with injuries. If the Wings can climb into 7th and face San Jose, we'll probably be looking at yet another first-round exit for the Sharks.)


3rd Place: Vancouver Canucks
(45-25-4, 94 points, 27-8-2 at home, 18-17-12 on the road, 2nd in offense, 7th in defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Dark Horse
High: Stanley Cup champions
Low: Second-round exit

Coming into the season I saw the Canucks as a classic dark horse team: a team that is not quite as strong as the real favorites, but should one or two of them get knocked out, is very capable of winning the West. Now, with less than 10 games to go in the regular season, I think they have to be upgraded to Cup favorites right alongside Chicago, and if you're looking for the reason why, it's their offense. No one would have predicted Vancouver, who has always been a good defensive team (and one could argue that 7th, as good as that is, is actually a little disappointing for the Canucks, who you'd probably expect to be in the top 5), would be the 2nd-best *offensive* team in the NHL. In fact, they have the best offense in the Western conference, ahead of the likes of Chicago & San Jose.

Their Achilles heel is their lackluster road record. If they can't turn that around in the post-season, well, they'd better hope they can climb into one of the top two seeds down the stretch or someone eliminates them for them, because they'll need home-ice throughout the playoffs. You also have to keep in mind that as great as Roberto Luongo has been in the regular season, he's yet to really get it done in the playoffs (remember last year's game 6 meltdown against Chicago?), and that's why I think they could still get knocked out in the second round. They should make it through the first round easily, however, and I'm personally placing bets on a Chicago-Vancouver re-match in the Western Conference finals, which would be a hell of a show.

Possible playoff match-ups: Colorado, Los Angeles, Nashville
Wants to play: Colorado
Wants to avoid: Nashville, I guess
(Of the teams sitting 5th-7th that Vancouver is most likely to play, they really haven't had any trouble with any of them this season. Whoever it is, the Canucks would be the heavy favorite.)


4th Place: Phoenix Coyotes
(46-23-5, 97 points, 26-10-2 at home, 20-13-3 on the road, 26th in Offense, 3rd in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Misses the playoffs
High: Conference Final
Low: First-round exit

If you honestly said you thought the Phoenix Coyotes would be sitting not just in fourth place, but comfortably in 4th place and only 1 point behind division-leading San Jose at this point in the season, you, sir, are a liar. This is a team that has taken everyone by surprise, and make no mistake about it, they are *the* story this year in the NHL.

Unfortunately for Phoenix, there will be a ton of issues that will probably prevent them from carrying that success over to the playoffs. The most obvious one is their 26th-ranked offense. Yes, they are really, really good defensively, but traditionally the teams that make it far in the playoffs are teams that are top 10 (or at the very least, top 15) in both categories, not 3rd in one and 26th in the other. The second issue is one that happens to a lot of Cinderella teams: I like to call it the "exhale" factor. In another words, this team played so far out of their minds to defy everyone and just make it into the post-season, there might be a bit of unconscious exhaling, so to speak. They make it to the playoffs and they think to themselves, okay, we made it. And then they exhale and relax a little bit, which naturally leads to you playing worse than you played when you were on that mission in the first place.

Now, if there's any coach who might be able to combat the "exhale factor", it's Dave Tippett, who is about as big of a lock to win the Jack Adams as I've ever seen in my lifetime. And that's why I'm still giving this team a chance to run all the way to the Conference final if they can get the right combination of goaltending and timely goals they've been getting all season. But this is a team that could also very easily go out in the first-round, and then the challenge will be not to turn into next season's version of the Columbus Blue Jackets or St. Louis Blues; that is, a team that made a huge run to the post-season they weren't supposed to make (albeit on a bigger scale for the 'Yotes) and then flames out next year under the newfound pressure of expecting to make it this time.

Possible playoff match-ups: LA, Colorado, Nashville
Wants to play: Colorado
Wants to avoid: LA
(Phoenix hasn't played too badly against any of these teams, but of the three, to me the team with the most dynamic offensive potential is the Kings. They're 2-2-1 against the Kings this year, not bad but not great, and since any first-round match-up will be them relying on their defense, you don't want to have to worry about shutting down all the Kings' weapons throughout an entire series.)


5th place: Los Angeles Kings
(42-24-6, 90 points, 21-12-3 at home, 21-12-3 on the road, 9th in Offense, 10th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Playoff bubble
High: Dark Horse
Low: First-round exit

The Kings have followed the Chicago/Washington model to perfection: they've built from within with a ton of young players (Kopitar, Brown, Johnson, Doughty, Quick, Frolov, Simmonds....I could go on), added a few big pieces in free-agency and trades (Handzus, Smyth, Williams, Scuderi), and now after almost a decade out of the playoffs they're skipping the bubble and heading in right near the top of the Conference. If they can keep it up down the stretch and stay right around the 5th spot (or maybe even climb into 4th if Phoenix or San Jose falters), they have to be considered the West's dark horse pick to make it to the Cup finals.

The numbers back it up: the Kings have identical home and road records, meaning they can get it done at home or on the road if they're a lower seed in a series. Teams that are top 10 in both categories tend to get it done in the playoffs, and they're sitting right there at 9th in offense and 10th in defense. They can play pretty much any style of hockey: they have a ton of guys who love to hit and get gritty down in the corners (which is playoff hockey), and then they've got their skilled guys like Kopy & Frolov who can make a breathtaking move in the slot, too. They've got perhaps the best TEAM cycle-game of any team in the NHL (Vancouver has the Sedins that do it better, but LA has FOUR LINES that can cycle the puck down low like demons). They have to worry about that same "exhale factor" I talked about for Phoenix, but their run hasn't been quite the Cinderella story that Phoenix's has been. Yeah, they're maybe a year ahead of schedule according to some pundits, but this team was called "the sexy pick" to make the playoffs before the season started. In another words, they're out of nowhere, but not out of NOWHERE.

Potential playoff match-ups: Phoenix, Vancouver, San Jose
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Vancouver
(Some people will think I'm insane for saying the Kings want to play the Sharks, but hear me out here. If the Kings do in fact play San Jose in the first round, it will be because, barring a total meltdown by the Kings, the Sharks lost out the division to Phoenix and fell into that 4-5 hole with them. That's a wounded animal already. The Kings also play the exact kind of hockey that wins in the playoffs, and the exact kind of hockey the Sharks seem to shy away from too often: that is to say, gritty, dig-the-puck-out-of-the-corners hockey. They've got a good record against them in the regular season, including scoring 7 goals against them twice, once in their own building. Yeah, I'd favor the Kings in that match-up. The Canucks, on the other hand, have had the Kings' number all season, so avoiding falling into 6th and having to deal with them in the first-round is really, really important for them.)


6th place: Colorado Avalanche
(41-25-7, 89 points, 23-11-2 at home, 18-14-5 on the road, 6th in Offense, 11th in Defense)
Pre-season pick: Misses the playoffs
High: Second-round exit
Low: First-round exit

Avs fans will probably cry out that I'm not giving enough respect to their team, and they might have a case. They do have some pretty good numbers in the two stat categories; they just barely miss being top-10 in both of them. What stops and gives me concern for the Avalanche's playoff hopes are three things: the aforementioned "exhale factor" we talked about for the Coyotes, as the Avs were also picked to miss the playoffs and probably used that as motivation all season long. Secondly, the overwhelming youth of this team has to be a concern. So much of the Avs have never gotten in done in the playoffs before, including their netminder Craig Anderson. You could say the same about the Kings and their own netminder, but they have more of a veteran presence than the Avs do to go along with all that youth.

Finally, the Avs' road record is cause for great concern considering they will almost certainly not have home-ice advantage in the first round and throughout the playoffs. The Avs are only 4 games above .500 on the road, and that kind of play isn't good enough in a Conference loaded with teams who are much, much better road teams. I think that with some bounces they could win their first-round series, but I wouldn't favor them to do it in any stretch of the imagination, and I definitely can't see them getting any farther than the second round. Still a hell of a story, though.

Potential playoff match-ups: Vancouver, San Jose, Phoenix
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Vancouver
(Unfortunately for the Avs, the team they're currently slated to play in the first round is the Canucks, who are a dominating 4-1-0 against them this season. If they fall back into 7th with San Jose at 2nd or climb into 5th with the Sharks falling to 4th, that will be a much better match-up for them, as the Avs have played the Sharks well all-season, including an opening night win.)


7th Place: Nashville Predators
(42-27-5, 89 points, 21-13-2 at home, 21-14-3 on the road, 14th in Offense, 16th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Playoff bubble, probably out of it
High: Second-round exit
Low: First-round exit

The Predators are another surprising story in a year full of them in the Western conference. This is a budget team that year after year manages to stay consistently around the bubble, and this year they're in even better shape than usual to make the playoffs after missing last year. The Preds' were always a good defensive team (and at 16th they're probably having a bit of a down year for that, oddly enough), but their 14th-ranked offense is nothing short of a huge shocker. They're getting contributions up-and-down their line-up, and their dynamic, high-scoring blueline is a big factor in their success.

Of the three teams that I'm picking to finish out of the playoffs by the second-round (Phoenix, Colorado, and the Preds), the Predators have probably the biggest chance of proving me wrong. They've got that dynamic back-end lead by Olympians Shea Weber (Canada) & Ryan Suter (US), they've got some of the most underrated goaltending in the league from both Pekka Rinne & Dan Ellis, and they've got some decent forwards who play gritty, playoff-style hockey (Arnott, Dumont, Tootoo, etc.) I still can't see them getting past the second round and it will be enough of a struggle to make it past the first, but who knows.

Potential playoff match-ups: San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Chicago
(The Predators haven't played their Central rival Blackhawks very well at all this season, so they want to avoid that match-up if at all possible. They've had pretty good showings against both the Sharks & Canucks all season, but I'm still going with San Jose as their "want to play" just because I think all of the lower seeds probably want to play the Sharks if they can help it.)


8th place: Detroit Red Wings
(37-23-13, 87 points, 21-10-5 at home, 16-13-8 on the road, 15th in Offense, 8th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Dark Horse
High: Conference final
Low: First-round exit

Ah yes, we finally make it to the elephant in the proverbial room that is the NHL playoffs. No one wants to play these Red Wings in the first-round. The only reason they're sitting so low in the West is because of their incredible streak of injuries earlier in the season: now that they're finally healthy again, they've been on an absolute tear since the Olympic break, to the tune of 8-2-1. But saying that this is the same team that went to the Cup finals two years in a row now is a little bit of an over exaggeration. The fact is, they're still missing key guys on offense (Hossa to the Hawks, Samuelssson to the Canucks, Hudler to the KHL) and they're going with a rookie in goal instead of Chris Osgood, whose game has finally appeared to fall off once and for all this season. They've made up for their decrease in offensive production by climbing up to having the 8th-best defense in the league, which is up significantly from a poor defensive season last year.

It's also worth pointing out that the Wings, along with the Penguins, have played more hockey than any other team in going to those back-to-back Cup Finals. While all those injuries may have actually helped the Red Wings by giving their key players some rest, all that still tends to add up, especially once you get back into the post-season grind. Along with their lackluster road record, that's why I can't see the Wings getting farther than the Conference final this year. They also have the potential to be eliminated in the first-round, like any other lower seed. Still, it won't be an easy out for any of the high seeds, by any stretch, and you can bet none of them will be happy to draw the Red Wings in the first round.

Potential playoff match-ups: Chicago, San Jose, Vancouver
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Chicago
(I honestly think Detroit would be comfortable playing any of these three teams in the first round, but of the three they've had their most success this season against the Sharks. Like I said before, even when they were suffering from all their injuries, they still went into San Jose and won. There's something about the Red Wings that just seem to scare the crap out of the Sharks. Of the other two, the Red Wings have a 2-2-1 record against Chicago, so that's probably not the best match-up for them. But don't get me wrong, no one in Chicago will be happy about that match-up should it come to fruition.)


Alright folks, that will *finally* do it for this very, very long blog. I'll be back at some point, maybe tonight or maybe tomorrow (since it's a 3-game schedule so once again not much of a point in doing a Today's Games to Watch) to break down the Eastern conference. Until then, try to enjoy the hockey we've got left and keep in mind, the playoffs are right around the corner!