Third Round Prediction Standings

Here's our picks for the conference finals along with the updated standings. This time, the stakes were 2 points for the winner as well as 2 additional points for also correctly guessing the amount of games it took them.


Eastern Conference
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Habs in 6 (+0)
Emily: Habs in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Flyers in 7 (+2)


Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 4
John: Blackhawks in 5 (+2)
Emily: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 6 (+2)


Standings After Third Round
1. Quinlan- 13 points
2. Emily- 12 points
3. John- 8 points


Ah yes, things are looking quite desperate for yours truly. But don't worry true believers- there's still a very, very slim chance I can catch them! For the Stanley Cup Finals will feature the ultimate stakes- 3 points for the correct winner, and a staggering 4 points for the correct amount of games it takes them to claim Lord Stanley's hardware! Who will come out on top? We'll find out soon!

Second Round Prediction Standings

Here's our picks for the second round and the updated standings. Remember, in this round it was 1 point for the winner, 2 points for the correct games.


Eastern Conference

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Emily: Penguins in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Habs in 7 (+3)

(6) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 7
John: Bruins in 7 (+0)
Emily: Flyers in 7 (+3)
Quinlan: Flyers in 6 (+1)


Western Conference

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Sharks in 5
John: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Emily: Red Wings in 6 (+0)
Quinlan: Red Wings in 5 (+0)

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (3) Vancouver Canucks
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Emily: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Blackhawks in 7 (+1)


Standings After Second Round
1. Emily- 10 points
2. Quinlan- 9 points
3. John- 6 points


For the conference finals we raise the stakes yet again. This time, 2 points will be awarded for both the winning team AND for the correct amount of games (provided you picked the right winner, of course).

And yes, even though I'm posting these now, the predictions were made prior to any games being played in the third round.


Eastern Conference Finals
(7) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John- Habs in 6
Emily- Habs in 7
Quinlan- Flyers in 7

Western Conference Finals
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks
John- Hawks in 5
Emily- Hawks in 6
Quinlan- Hawks in 6

First Round Prediction Standings

With the first round in the books, it's time to take a look at where the three hosts of CIA Radio ultimately stand. Needless to say, many of the gigantic upsets took us all by surprise, as you'll see in just a moment.

Now, the way I'm doing this scoring system is simple: each of us gets 1 point for getting the winning team right, and then another point if we also got the amount of games it took right. In each round the stakes will go up: in the conference semis, it will still be 1 point for the winner but now it will be 2 points for getting the game number, 2 points for the winner & 2 points for the game # in the conference finals, and finally 3 points for the winner & the game # in the Stanley Cup final.


Eastern Conference

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
Actual Result: Habs in 7
John: Caps in 4 (+0)
Emily: Caps in 4 (+0)
Quinlan: Caps in 4 (+0)
Thoughts: The only series where we were all in complete agreement in both the winning team & the number of games, and of course we were all 100% incorrect. To say this came as a shocker would be an understatement; even before Game 6, I remember remarking to both of them that all of us would pick up 1 point here. No one saw the Caps' epic collapse coming, but considering it was a record-setting collapse at that, I don't think anyone can really blame us.

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
Actual Result: Flyers in 5
John: Devils in 5 (+0)
Emily: Devils in 5 (+0)
Quinlan: Devils in 6 (+0)
Thoughts: We're off to a fantastic start, aren't we? Again all three of us got this one wrong, too, as we all put too much stock in the goaltending and not even stock in the Flyers' 5-1-0 regular season record against the Devils. At this point, I think I'm going to have to adopt a rule for the Devils- don't pick them to get out of the first round until they actually manage to do it again, no matter how good their regular season was.

(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
Actual Result: Bruins in 6
John: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Emily: Buffalo in 7 (+0)
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5 (+0)
Thoughts: In another series where we were all wrong, I suppose you can say Emily was the closest to being right; on the podcast when we were discussing this series, she kept insisting it would be a very, very close series while Quinlan & I thought it would be a cakewalk for the Sabres. The fact is, Boston found some goal-scoring at the best possible time, and considering how good defenesively they were already that makes them pretty scary.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
Actual Result: Penguins in 6
John: Ottawa in 7 (+0)
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7 (+1)
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6 (+2)
Thoughts: Leave it to me to pick my only upset in the only Eastern conference series that DOESN'T HAVE AN UPSET. Of course, Emily & Quinlan played it safe and picked the favorite again, and they finally have a correct prediction as a result. Crosby turned up his play by about seven-million times and Fleury & the defense seemed to get better as time goes on, which was enough to squeak by a fired-up Ottawa squad.

Western Conference

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
Actual Result: Sharks in 6
John: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Emily: San Jose in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Colorado in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Even though Emily & I both pick up a point and Quinlan gets nothing, in a way his prediction was probably closer to being right than ours was! We thought it would be a four-and-done situation, while Quinlan thought it would be a very close series, and he turned out to be right. Unfortunately, Colorado didn't have what it took to take advantage of some very, very good bounces and finish off the Sharks, who managed to get that monkey off their back somewhat with a huge win.

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
Actual Result: Blackhawks in 6
John: Chicago in 6 (+2)
Emily: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Quinlan: Chicago in 5 (+1)
Actual Thoughts: Yeah, my first two-pointer! I had a feeling this series was going to be a close one and it certainly was, and the Predators have nothing to be ashamed of when they were oh-so-close to a 3-1 lead. The Blackhawks simply had too much talent in the end, but they can't afford to not show up for a game in the next round like they did against the Preds in Game 3.

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
Actual Result: Canucks in 6
John: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Emily: Vancouver in 6 (+2)
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7 (+1)
Thoughts: Speaking of teams who were very, very close to a 3-1 lead, my poor Kings almost pulled off the upset, but they simply did not have the goaltending in the end to get it done, despite a great start from Jonathan Quick. The third-period collapse in Game 4 was obviously the turning point, and it all went downhill for the Kings from there.

(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Actual Result: Red Wings in 7
John: Detroit in 5 (+1)
Emily: Detroit in 4 (+1)
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7 (+0)
Thoughts: Here's yet another series where we get a point each and Quinlan gets nothing, but Quinlan was probably closer to being right than we were. We both thought this would be an easy out for the Wings, but Quinlan had this as a very close series and he turned out to be right. The Red Wings had way too much talent to go out in the first round, but the 'Yotes put up a hell of a fight.


Standings After First Round
1. Emily - 6 points
2. John - 5 points
3. Quinlan - 4 points

Alright folks, there's your standings after one round. For now Ms. Emily Gee is our leader, but there's still plenty of hockey left to be played, and thus plenty of more bad predictions to be made too. Tonight we'll be back on the air with CIA Radio, where all three of us will make our picks for the second round! You can join in on the fun by clicking here starting at around 7:00 pm EST to join our live chat. There's a number on there where you can call in and talk to us on the show as well. We'll be starting at 7:30 pm EST. Hope to see some of you there!

CIA Radio Returns! Plus, listing everyone's playoff picks

CIA Radio returned tonight with 90+ minutes of hockey talk! Along with my co-hosts Emily Gee & Bryan Quinlan, we broke down all of the playoff matchups as well as talking about the changes in Tampa Bay. Check us out! From this point forward, we will be on the air each and every Monday night at 9 pm EST to talk about the playoffs as they go on and make more predictions each round. I'll try to remember to post the link on here so you can join our live chat, listen to us live, and even call in and talk with us if you want.
http://tinyurl.com/y6nu6rz


While I listen back to the show, I'm taking down everyone's predictions (and yes, I know I changed a few of mine from my blogs, I think only LA-Vancouver actually but maybe I'm wrong) so I can keep track of it and see who got it right and who got it very, very wrong. After the first round I'll update our standings and see who came closest to getting it right as far as who won and in how many games (since many of our predictions ended up being the same other than how long it would take).

Eastern Conference

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens
John: Caps in 4
Emily: Caps in 4
Quinlan: Caps in 4

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
John: Devils in 5
Emily: Devils in "5 or 6" (I'll call it 5)
Quinlan: Devils in 6

(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
John: Buffalo in 5
Emily: Buffalo in 7
Quinlan: Buffalo in 5

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
John: Ottawa in 7
Emily: Pittsburgh in 7
Quinlan: Pittsburgh in 6


Western Conference

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
John: San Jose in 4
Emily: San Jose in 4
Quinlan: Colorado in 7

(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
John: Chicago in 6
Emily: Chicago in 5
Quinlan: Chicago in 5

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
John: Vancouver in 7
Emily: Vancouver in 6
Quinlan: Vancouver in 7

(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
John: Detroit in 5
Emily: Detroit in 4
Quinlan: Phoenix in 7


Finalists

Special Guest Mr. Sean Williams!
East: Washington over New Jersey in 5 games
West: Detroit over Chicago in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Detroit in 6 games

Quinlan
East: Washington over Buffalo in 5 games
West: Chicago over Vancouver in 7 games
Cup Finals: Washington over Chicago in 7 games

Emily
East: Washington over New Jersey in "5 or 6" (once again, we'll say 5) games
West: Chicago over Detroit in...uh....she forgot to say. I'll get it out of her.
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "blank" games.

John
East: Washington over New Jersey in 4 games
West: Chicago over Detroit in 5 games
Cup Finals: Chicago over Washington in "5 or 6" (oh no I caught the Emily disease! we'll say 6)

Playoff Preview: Eastern Conference & Final Picks

Continuing where we left off, let's dive into the East...then I'll make my final predictions for who wins each conference and ultimately, the Stanley Cup.


(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadians
(Season series was split, both teams went 2-1-1)

As insane as this is for me to even type, a friend of mine who is a huge Habs fan claimed to have actually been rooting for this match-up. This isn't something he just threw out there after it was already official, either; he actually made this statement before the Rangers-Flyers game that ultimately sealed the Habs' fate. A fate that will more than likely see them get swept right out of the playoffs for the second year in a row.

Now, of course, I suppose it is possible that the Presidents' Trophy winners get upset two years in a row. But likely? Not very. The Capitals score goals in bunches and have showed over the past few weeks that they are at least trying to play better defensively heading into the playoffs. Watch a Capitals game recently and you'll see players occasionally doing crazy things like- GASP- back-checking! Now, no one is going to confuse this team with, say, the New Jersey Devils. But this is still the overwhelming favorite in the East who rolled through the regular season, and even a minor defensive adjustment should be enough to take them far through the playoffs. Barring a complete and total breakdown from both of their goaltenders, the Caps will take this one easily. And to be quite frank, I'm not even sure both their goalies' breaking down would be enough for the Habs to win this series, either. Short of a meteor striking the location of a Capitals practice, I'm not sure anything would be.

Prediciton: Caps in four.


(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers
(Flyers won season series 5-1-0)

As any New York Rangers fan could tell you, there's nothing we enjoy more than watching the Devils lose. Last year was a particularly fun time, as the Devils won the Atlantic and promptly flamed out in the first-round for the second year in a row, in spectacular fashion. And there's nothing I'd love to do more than tell you it's going to happen again this year. But I can't. And the reason why is called Ilya Kovalchuck.

Now, I know what some are going to point to: one point in four games when his previous team was getting swept out of their only playoff appearance (by the Rangers, ironically enough). But being on a bad team that only got into the playoffs on the utter weakness of their division isn't enough to make Kovalchuck a Thornton-level playoff choker. You can't form a pattern from such a small sample size. And on this Devil team, Kovalchuck doesn't have to do it all. He just has to be good, as good as he's been for them while they quietly wrestled away the Atlantic crown from the Penguins and then held off the Sabres for second in the conference on their final day. And I think he will be.

The Flyers, of course, squandered a huge lead for a playoff spot and needed to beat out those same Rangers in a shootout on the very last day of the season just to get in. So they're not exactly coming in on a hot streak. And really, when it comes right down to it, Cam Ward and Henrik Lundqvist out-dueling Martin Brodeur over the past two years is one thing. But Brian Boucher? Think about this for a second: are the Flyers' group of forwards or defensemen really so much better than New Jersey's that you think they'll make up for the fact that their goalie is BRIAN BOUCHER and Jersey's goalie is MARTIN BRODEUR?! The answer you're looking for is a resounding "no."

Prediction: Devils in five.


(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins
(Bruins won season series 4-2-0)

Some people are already pointing at this clash of Northeast division rivals as perhaps the East's only potential for an upset this year, and I must vehemently disagree (on a couple of fronts, actually, but we'll get to that in a second). I know everyone had gotten all caught up in the story of these plucky Bruins battling their way into the playoffs, setting a new record for most short-handed goals on someone else's single power play in the process (nevermind the fact that it came against an eliminated Carolina team that actually appeared to somehow be skating around in their sleep at the time), but let's get real here. This is still the team who finished the NHL regular season dead last, 30th out of 30 in the NHL in scoring. I don't care how great they are defensively, this team simply does not score. Now we're taking that team and expecting them to score enough goals against Ryan Miller to win a 7-game series? Yeah. Not bloody likely.

Now, with all that said, if Tuuka Rask keeps standing on his head like he has all season long for them I suppose anything is possible. And of all the first-round match-ups, this one definitely has the most potential to go into multiple-OTs. It reminds me a little bit of that Vancouver-Dallas series from a few seasons ago: neither team could score to begin with and both goalies (Marty Turco and Roberto Luongo) were feeling it, so we had seemingly another seven games played in extra periods. But when two elite goalies playing at the top of their game play each other in a seven-game series, what usually happens is they simply negate each other and the better, more talented team wins out in the end. It happened then with Vancouver beating Dallas, and it will probably happen again this year with Buffalo beating Boston.

Prediction: Buffalo in five.


(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators
(Season series was split, both teams went 2-2-0)

Ah yes, now it's time to pay off that bit of foreshadowing from earlier: I said I disagreed with the majority opinion of Boston-over-Buffalo being the East's only potential upset, right? Well, here's the other reason why: I think if there's going to be an upset at all in the remarkably top-heavy East this year, it's going to come in this series. And make no mistake about it, this battle of the defending Stanley Cup champions against a team that has been the definition of inconsistency all season long is FAR from your typical 4-5 matchup. Whereas usually the two teams are very close and the series can be reasonably called a toss-up, this year Pittsburgh will enter as the overwhelming favorites in the eyes of many. However, peel back a few layers here and you'll begin to realize that all is not well in the NHL's favorite city. Sidney Crosby's reinvention as a goal-scoring machine this season has been a feel-good story, and that feel-good story has allowed them to cover up some huge holes that suggest the Pens are not in for anywhere near that deep of a run this season. In no particular order, those holes are:

-Malkin's drop-off from his Art Ross season to an injury-plagued and utterly disappointing campaign.

-Marc-Andre Fleury's less-than-stellar play in goal; he's been pulled in seemingly every-other Pens game I've seen this year en route to a paltry .905 save % and 2.65 GAA.

-The Pens as a whole being unable to win big games against good teams all season. Against the top two teams in the conference, the Caps & Devils, the Pens failed to win even a single game in ten tries, and it was their epic run of futility against the Devils in particular that ultimately cost them the Atlantic.

-Their power play hovered around ten percent without Sergei Gonchar in the lineup for most of the season. No, that's not a typo- TEN PERCENT. Gonchar is back again right now from yet another injury, but who knows how long that will last?

Add all that up together and you've got a team that is on very shaky ground, in my opinion. They just looked tired for a lot of this year, and you know what? Who can really blame them? They've gone to back-to-back Stanley Cup finals, and that has to take its toll at some point. That's why I just don't see how they could possibly have another long playoff run in them.

With all that said, I can certainly understand why most everyone will pick them over Ottawa. But I'm willing to stand out on this limb all by myself. I think it all comes down to Brian Elliot first-and-foremost. All season long, for the most part, the Senators have gone as he has gone. When he's played well (and at times he's played VERY well this year), the team rattles off franchise-record win streaks. When he's played not-so-well, they lose 6 games in a row. They play a very tight-checking game in front of him and the roster has largely "bought in" to coach Cory Clouston, even (surprisingly) guys like Jason Spezza. Losing Alex Kovalev to an ACL tear hurt, sure, but there were many a night this year where they might as well not have had Alex Kovalev in the line-up anyway and they still found a way to win plenty of games. I believe that, no matter what, this series will be a lot closer than most people are expecting. But in the end, I really think the Senators can get it done, and send the NHL's poster boys home very early. Don't cry, Mr. Bettman....at least you'll still have the Caps.

Prediction: Senators in seven.


Alright, with all that said and done, I'm gonna make my final predictions for the rest of the playoffs. As a reminder, before the season started I went with Pittsburgh over Washington and Chicago over Vancouver for my conference finals, and ultimately Chicago over Pittsburgh for the Stanley Cup. Obviously I'm changing that prediction now if I'm telling you the Penguins are going home in the first-round, so without further ado....

Eastern Conference: Washington over New Jersey
Western Conference: Chicago over Detroit

Stanley Cup: Chicago over Washington

I'm sticking with my pick in the West and ultimately for the Stanley Cup, but I'm changing up some of the finalists in the process. Some of that's just due to logistics; if the first-round go as I predicted it, Chicago would face Vancouver in the conference semis. But in the East, I think it's clearly become Washington's to lose.

Alright folks, that'll do it for now. As a reminder, tomorrow night at 9 pm EST we'll have a special playoff preview edition of CIA Radio, so if you've got any comments of your own the link will be here (and on Facebook & Twitter) for you to call in and share your thoughts with us. I'll be live with my two co-hosts as we break down all these playoff matchups all over again. Until then, enjoy these two days off, because on Wednesday it's time to start playing for Lord Stanley's hardware!

Playoff Preview: Western Conference

It's a sad day for yours truly. Not only were my Rangers knocked out of the playoffs with a heartwrenching 2-1 shootout loss to the hated Flyers, but my Blackhawks lost to the Red Wings 3-2 in overtime. That not only meant that the Hawks will finish second in the conference and have to play a much tougher Nashville team instead of the Colorado Avalanche, but it also pushed my Kings down from 5th to 6th. Of the four teams at the top of the West, the ONLY team I really wanted the Kings to avoid playing was Vancouver. We'll get into the whys of that in a second, but just about everything that could go wrong today did.

The meaningful games are almost over; we're waiting on the result of a Buffalo-New Jersey game that's in progress as I type this to decide who gets 2nd in the East. The West, however, has been decided, and finally we can break down all the match-ups heading into the playoff excitement. So in search of anything to distract me from the heartbreak, let's dive right into it and make some predictions!


(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche
(Sharks won season series 2-1-1)

First of all, I'm not listing anyone's regular season records, because in my opinion you can throw that out the window once we get to the playoffs. How the teams did against each other back in that regular season is at least a little bit interesting, but I wouldn't read too much into that, either. As we all know, the playoffs are a whole different animal: more tight-checking and physical than regular season hockey could ever approach.

You can't talk about the San Jose Sharks without mentioning their playoff failures, most recently as the first seed against the eighth-seeded Anaheim Ducks. However, no one in San Jose should be too worried about history repeating itself this year. Colorado is almost an exact opposite of the Ducks team that knocked out the Sharks last year: the Ducks were a veteran team who got off to a poor start and then turned it on in a major way down the stretch to get again. They were a better team then their record showed, and they proved it by nearly eliminating the Red Wings in the second round. Colorado, on the other hand, is an incredibly young team who almost backed into the playoffs. They picked up a few big wins over the last week, including over the Sharks themselves, but the teams they beat were largely playing for nothing (or at least close to it). When the chips were down and the Avalanche had to beat the Calgary Flames to hold onto their spot last Friday, they lost. Only by getting some help from other teams did they hold off the Flames for the eighth and final playoff spot.

The Avs getting into the playoffs was clearly a great story. But I don't see how they can hold off a Sharks team that is hungry and out for blood (pardon the pun). There's simply no way this San Jose team will be anything but ready to play in the first round after what happened last year. I don't think the Sharks have what it takes to make it through the rest of the playoffs, but they shouldn't have much trouble here.

Prediciton: Sharks in four.


(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators
(Blackhawks won season series 4-2-0)

The Hawks are an interesting team to talk about right now. They followed the exact same pattern as last year: awful in March, really good in April. Of course, that doesn't guarantee they will have a post-season like last year's, and most fans of the Hawks will tell you that simply a trip to the conference finals won't satisfy them this year. It's Cup or bust for these Hawks, but to get there they have to get through a very tough Nashville team. Nashville is a fantastic defensive team, and one of the big problems the Hawks have had all season long is getting through the neutral zone against teams who know how to play that 1-2-2 style well. Those problems are only increased when you consider the fact that the Hawks are missing their best puck-carrying defenseman, Brian Campbell, for what will likely be this entire first-round (and perhaps the second-round as well, should they get that far). There's also the question of how rookie goaltender Antti Niemi will hold up under the playoff pressure, a valid question to be sure.

With all that said, I don't think the Predators have enough firepower to hang in there with the Hawks in a seven-game series. I've told you a lot of reasons why the Hawks might not win, but now let me tell you even more reasons why they will win: Jonathan Toews. Patrick Kane. Marian Hossa. Patrick Sharp. John Madden. Kris Versteeg. And on and on and on. This is by far the deepest group of forwards in the Western conference, and only Washington can perhaps compete with them when it comes to being able to roll four lines and always have someone who can score on the ice. Nashville is a pretty great defensive team and Pekka Rinne has been stellar for them in net, but I don't see how they can shut down all four of the Hawks' lines for an entire series. The Hawks will have some problems, maybe even send the (suddenly very sizable) fanbase into a panic by losing game 1 at home, but in the end they'll pull it out.

Prediction: Blackhawks in six.


(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings
(Vancouver won season series 3-1-0)

Like I already mentioned, of all the four opponents the Kings could have played in the opening round, this is the only one I really wanted them to avoid. With the sole exception of their recent 8-goal pummeling of the 'Nucks in LA, the Kings have almost always played horrible against Vancouver. They're probably the only team who have a line that's better on the cycle than the Kings (though their overall cycle game is still probably stronger), and considering it's largely on the strength of their cycle they got here in the first place, that would in fact be a problem. Vancouver had won a staggering seven games in a row against the Kings before LA finally snapped that streak.

Another problem for the Kings is the play of starting goalie Jonathan Quick, who has gone 0-3-3 in his last six games of the season. The Kings in general have played OK in front of him, sometimes better than others, but Quick has failed to lock it down even when the Kings were heavily outshooting their opponents. Quick's role as franchise goaltender of the future is suddenly in question with the rise of Jonathan Bernier, but unless Quick gets injured or really gets shellacked it will probably be his ball to run with (for this year, at least).

There's really not much else to say here. Vancouver will enter as overwhelming favorites with the best offense in the Western conference. Barring a meltdown from Luongo (who has been known to melt down in the playoffs before) and/or a complete drop-off in play from the Sedins, there's no reason to believe that the Canucks won't be able to handle the Kings with ease. Kings fans can take solace in the fact that their young team will likely be back, and the Vancouver team who will likely eliminate them is perhaps an early favorite to take the Western conference crown.

Prediction: Vancouver in five.


(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
(Detroit won the season series 2-0-2)

It's a shame for the Coyotes that it's come to this. Phoenix has had a fairytale season this year, turning from a team everyone had left for dead due to their off-season, off-ice woes into everyone's favorite underdog story. Their 107-point campaign was a new franchise record, including all those years in Winnipeg. But now their magical regular season, full of shootout wins and gutsy performances from guys having career years, must enter the playoffs and face reality. That reality is a Red Wings team that has lost only 1 game in regulation since the Olympic break, a Red Wings team that is healthy for the first time all year. And they are ready to pounce.

If Phoenix has any shot to win this series, they need to get out to a strong start and win both games in Phoenix. If they can really put some pressure on the Wings and their rookie goaltender Jimmy Howard, perhaps they can pull off the upset. We also don't know how this Detroit team will handle starting on the road in the playoffs for the first time in decades. But unless Phoenix has a lot more miracles left in them- and more late-period and overtime goals since there's no shootout to dominate in the playoffs- they will see their dream season come to a nightmare end. We all know how important special teams becomes in the playoffs, and Phoenix has one of the worst power plays in the NHL

Prediction: Detroit in five games.


Alright folks, that's it for the West. I'll be back later tonight breaking down all the matchups in the East, and don't forget we'll have a podcast talking it all over for you tomorrow night at 9 pm EST.

Breaking Down the Playoff Chances: Western Conference

Welcome back to Center Ice Addict! Today, we're going to try something a little bit different. As you probably know, we usually break down the day's schedule in the NHL and tell you which games are worth watching. But taking a look at the schedule for today, there really isn't much of a point in doing that; of the 11 games on tap for today, only 1 (Phoenix @ Nashville) is between teams currently in playoff position. And as great as the hockey as been this year, there's something that's become increasingly obvious as the weeks go by. The playoff races are, to be quite frank, the worst we've seen in years.

For all the talk of parity in today's NHL, the fact is in both Conferences, most of the teams have little to no shot of making the playoffs. There is real separation heading into the final weeks of the regular season. In the West, 9th place Calgary sits 4 points behind Detroit, and with their respective schedules that will be a very difficult point differential to make up down the stretch. 10th place Dallas sits 9 points back, and Detroit has a game in hand on all the teams sitting 10th-14th. While all those teams are still *mathematically* in it, realistically they haven't got a shot in hell.

The East, for all its mediocrity compared to the West (those some 10th place Stars would be tied for 8th if they were in the Eastern Conference, and virtually everyone other than Columbus & Edmonton would still be in it in the East), isn't much better. 8th place Boston sits 3 points ahead of 9th place Atlanta, and 5 points ahead of the 10th place Rangers, with a game in hand on both. As a Ranger fan I do want to point out that our schedule, despite being road-heavy, is actually a lot easier than Boston's. If the Rangers can beat the Devils tonight, they have a real chance to go on a run against non-playoff teams: they'll play at the Maple Leafs, Islanders, Lightning, Panthers, Buffalo (the only playoff team here), then home to the Leafs again. If they can make hay on that schedule and win 5 of 6 or even run the table, then they may be able to make this race close again. Realistically, they're still out of it until they get it done, and Boston still has their fate in their own hands.

With all that said, the "parity" that we're seeing this year in the NHL has been replaced a bit by three real "tiers' of teams. You've got your Elite Tier, the teams at the top of the conferences who have put a ton of separation from everyone else (and one could argue Washington and their 108 points, which have already tied a franchise record with 9 games left to play, should be their own tier). Washington, Jersey, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo would be your elite teams in the East, with Chicago, San Jose, Vancouver, & shockingly Phoenix being the elite teams in the West. Then you have your Playoff Tier, the teams in each conference who aren't quite in striking distance of the elite teams, but who have put a great deal of separation between themselves and the non-playoff teams in each conference. Ottawa, Montreal, Philadelphia, and Boston comprise this tier in the East, while Los Angeles, Colorado, Nashville, and Detroit (maybe Calgary) comprise this tier in the West. Finally, you've got your non-playoff teams, which are everyone else.

This is what I like to call the New Parity in the NHL. Other than Washington, who like I said should be their own tier, in the East you've got the Pens, Devils, and Sabres all separated by just 1 point. In the West, Chicago, San Jose, Phoenix, and Vancouver are only separated by 4 points. Then when you get to the playoff teams, in the East 5th place Ottawa and 8th place Boston are only separated by 5 points, and in the West it's even tighter as 5th place LA and 8th place Detroit are only separated by 3 points. Finally, the non-playoff teams are just as tight: 2 points are all that separates 10th place Dallas and 13th place Anaheim in the West, while 5 points separate the 10th place Rangers and 14th place Islanders.

So while things are still tight in today's NHL, there's also a lot more separation than there are in years past, and that makes this year's playoff race seem a bit more, well, boring than usual. Like I said in my last blog, how excited can you really get for a race for 8th in the East when your "reward" is playing the most dominant regular-season team the NHL has seen in almost a decade? In the West, you have the opposite problem: all the teams in the playoffs right now seem so good and seem like they can knock off anyone, so when those eight teams just keep winning games, who could you really see dropping out of it so Calgary can get in?

But there is light at the end of this tunnel. The trade-off for having a less-interesting stretch drive than we might usually have is we may have one of the most exciting playoffs ever coming up in just a few short weeks. And that's saying something coming off one of the most exciting playoffs in almost two decades last year, but this year's has all the potential to top it. The East may not be as interesting as last year (it really looks like Washington's conference to lose, but we'll get more into that next time), but can you ever recall a time when the West was this wide open? You've got 4 teams atop the West all within 4 points of each other, and you've got an 8th place team in Detroit right now that NO ONE wants to play in the first-round. Any single one of these eight teams could win the Western conference.

So here's what we're going to do today. We're going to take a look at all of the teams currently in the playoffs, break down where they were expected to finish before the season started, and then break down what they could do in the playoffs. Each team will get a High and a Low, in another words where we think their potential is and where they could flame out. We'll list their records, overall, home, and away, and we'll also list their rankings among all 30 teams in the NHL in both offense & defense (goals for/goals against per game). Finally, we'll talk briefly about what their possible playoff match-ups and which ones would most benefit them. Alright folks, with all this intro out of the way, let's get started in the Western conference!


Western Conference

1st: Chicago Blackhawks
(46-19-7, 99 points, 27-7-3 at home, 19-12-4 away, 3rd in Offense, 4th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Cup Favorite
High: Stanley Cup champions
Low: Second-round exit

The Blackhawks went into this season with the high expectations of winning their first Stanley Cup since 1961, and they've been right at the top of the Central division & Western conference standings since pretty much the season began. People had issue with their goaltending heading into the season, and some still do, but for the most part the duo of Huet & Niemi have gotten it done in the regular season. The big question heading into the post-season is who will be the starter, but the Hawks will at least be able to comfort themselves with the knowledge that if whoever they go with flames out, they've still got the other one to hand the ball to.

Even though the Blackhawks are currently matched-up with the Red Wings in the first round, I can't see them going out any earlier than the second. They're simply too good on both sides of the puck to get upset in the first round. A second round upset is possible if their goaltending, which just isn't playoff-tested, gives out on them. But realistically, this is probably as close as the West has to a favorite to make it to at least the Conference finals, and until someone knocks them off they have to be considered the favorite to win the West.

Possible playoff match-ups: Detroit, Nashville, Colorado
Wants to play: Colorado
Wants to avoid: Detroit
(The Hawks have had their problems with Nashville's trapping style over the years, but Detroit still has to be the most feared team to the Blackhawks and especially their fans. Despite Chicago's mastery over the Central this season, the Red Wings have already shown in recent weeks that, when healthy, they're still very capable of playing the Blackhawks evenly. I would still favorite the Hawks in any of these potential match-ups, including against the Wings, but there's no doubt they'd like to avoid facing Detroit in the first round if it's at all possible.)


2nd place: San Jose Sharks
(44-19-10, 98 points, 22-6-8 at home, 22-13-2 on the road, 4th in Offense, 9th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: ???
High Expectation: Conference Final
Low Expectation: First-round exit

The question marks are pretty much what everyone put down for the Sharks heading into the season. Every year this team looks great on paper, and then everyone year they find a way to flame out in the first or second round of the playoffs. So finally, almost no one picked them to win the Cup this year, saying they wouldn't be fooled again by San Jose, even after they retooled a lot of their roster, striped Marleau of the C, and acquired Dany Heatley from Ottawa. The Sharks at first did that usual San Jose domination of the regular-season, but they're recently coming off a six-game winless streak (their longest since November of 2005, and five straight losses came in regulation) that was just snapped this past week in Minnesota.

The problems with the Sharks are numerous: despite the fact that their leaders continue to bang the drum in interviews that "this isn't the same team as last year", who were their leaders last year? Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Rob Blake, Dan Boyle....you guessed it, they're all on the team again this year. The only difference is the aforementioned Heatley, who no one has ever confused with a clutch performer. So does changing around a bunch of role-players on the lower lines really mean this is a totally different team? I don't buy it.

There's an argument to be made that all these recent struggles is actually a good thing for a team that got it easy for most of the season, but I don't buy that, either. First of all, even though they didn't lose so many in a row last season, they had their fair share of struggles around this time last year, too, and look how well that worked out for them. Second of all, the big two problems among this team- lack of effort from backchecking and defensive-zone coverage amongst their "big guys" and sub-par/inconsistent goaltending from Nabakov (ask Russia how well he handled clutch games for them in the Olympics)- aren't just magically going to go away once the playoffs start. So that's why the farthest I can see this team going is the Conference final. I just don't see how, in a 7-game series, these guys can beat Chicago or Vancouver. Hell, I think I'd favor teams like Detroit, Phoenix, and LA against them, too. They could easily get bounced in the first-round again, and then I just have no idea where you go with this team. It might be time to blow this thing up, let Marleau walk in free-agency, and see if you can trade Jumbo Joe and let him be someone else's problem in the playoffs.

Possible playoff match-ups: Nashville, Colorado, Detroit
Wants to play: Nashville
Wants to avoid: Detroit
(Seeing a pattern here? No one wants to play the Red Wings in the first round. The Sharks have had, for the most part, an easy time with the Predators this season, including that five-goal 3rd period explosion at home. The Wings, on the other hand, have beaten up on the Sharks all season, even when they had a ton of people out with injuries. If the Wings can climb into 7th and face San Jose, we'll probably be looking at yet another first-round exit for the Sharks.)


3rd Place: Vancouver Canucks
(45-25-4, 94 points, 27-8-2 at home, 18-17-12 on the road, 2nd in offense, 7th in defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Dark Horse
High: Stanley Cup champions
Low: Second-round exit

Coming into the season I saw the Canucks as a classic dark horse team: a team that is not quite as strong as the real favorites, but should one or two of them get knocked out, is very capable of winning the West. Now, with less than 10 games to go in the regular season, I think they have to be upgraded to Cup favorites right alongside Chicago, and if you're looking for the reason why, it's their offense. No one would have predicted Vancouver, who has always been a good defensive team (and one could argue that 7th, as good as that is, is actually a little disappointing for the Canucks, who you'd probably expect to be in the top 5), would be the 2nd-best *offensive* team in the NHL. In fact, they have the best offense in the Western conference, ahead of the likes of Chicago & San Jose.

Their Achilles heel is their lackluster road record. If they can't turn that around in the post-season, well, they'd better hope they can climb into one of the top two seeds down the stretch or someone eliminates them for them, because they'll need home-ice throughout the playoffs. You also have to keep in mind that as great as Roberto Luongo has been in the regular season, he's yet to really get it done in the playoffs (remember last year's game 6 meltdown against Chicago?), and that's why I think they could still get knocked out in the second round. They should make it through the first round easily, however, and I'm personally placing bets on a Chicago-Vancouver re-match in the Western Conference finals, which would be a hell of a show.

Possible playoff match-ups: Colorado, Los Angeles, Nashville
Wants to play: Colorado
Wants to avoid: Nashville, I guess
(Of the teams sitting 5th-7th that Vancouver is most likely to play, they really haven't had any trouble with any of them this season. Whoever it is, the Canucks would be the heavy favorite.)


4th Place: Phoenix Coyotes
(46-23-5, 97 points, 26-10-2 at home, 20-13-3 on the road, 26th in Offense, 3rd in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Misses the playoffs
High: Conference Final
Low: First-round exit

If you honestly said you thought the Phoenix Coyotes would be sitting not just in fourth place, but comfortably in 4th place and only 1 point behind division-leading San Jose at this point in the season, you, sir, are a liar. This is a team that has taken everyone by surprise, and make no mistake about it, they are *the* story this year in the NHL.

Unfortunately for Phoenix, there will be a ton of issues that will probably prevent them from carrying that success over to the playoffs. The most obvious one is their 26th-ranked offense. Yes, they are really, really good defensively, but traditionally the teams that make it far in the playoffs are teams that are top 10 (or at the very least, top 15) in both categories, not 3rd in one and 26th in the other. The second issue is one that happens to a lot of Cinderella teams: I like to call it the "exhale" factor. In another words, this team played so far out of their minds to defy everyone and just make it into the post-season, there might be a bit of unconscious exhaling, so to speak. They make it to the playoffs and they think to themselves, okay, we made it. And then they exhale and relax a little bit, which naturally leads to you playing worse than you played when you were on that mission in the first place.

Now, if there's any coach who might be able to combat the "exhale factor", it's Dave Tippett, who is about as big of a lock to win the Jack Adams as I've ever seen in my lifetime. And that's why I'm still giving this team a chance to run all the way to the Conference final if they can get the right combination of goaltending and timely goals they've been getting all season. But this is a team that could also very easily go out in the first-round, and then the challenge will be not to turn into next season's version of the Columbus Blue Jackets or St. Louis Blues; that is, a team that made a huge run to the post-season they weren't supposed to make (albeit on a bigger scale for the 'Yotes) and then flames out next year under the newfound pressure of expecting to make it this time.

Possible playoff match-ups: LA, Colorado, Nashville
Wants to play: Colorado
Wants to avoid: LA
(Phoenix hasn't played too badly against any of these teams, but of the three, to me the team with the most dynamic offensive potential is the Kings. They're 2-2-1 against the Kings this year, not bad but not great, and since any first-round match-up will be them relying on their defense, you don't want to have to worry about shutting down all the Kings' weapons throughout an entire series.)


5th place: Los Angeles Kings
(42-24-6, 90 points, 21-12-3 at home, 21-12-3 on the road, 9th in Offense, 10th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Playoff bubble
High: Dark Horse
Low: First-round exit

The Kings have followed the Chicago/Washington model to perfection: they've built from within with a ton of young players (Kopitar, Brown, Johnson, Doughty, Quick, Frolov, Simmonds....I could go on), added a few big pieces in free-agency and trades (Handzus, Smyth, Williams, Scuderi), and now after almost a decade out of the playoffs they're skipping the bubble and heading in right near the top of the Conference. If they can keep it up down the stretch and stay right around the 5th spot (or maybe even climb into 4th if Phoenix or San Jose falters), they have to be considered the West's dark horse pick to make it to the Cup finals.

The numbers back it up: the Kings have identical home and road records, meaning they can get it done at home or on the road if they're a lower seed in a series. Teams that are top 10 in both categories tend to get it done in the playoffs, and they're sitting right there at 9th in offense and 10th in defense. They can play pretty much any style of hockey: they have a ton of guys who love to hit and get gritty down in the corners (which is playoff hockey), and then they've got their skilled guys like Kopy & Frolov who can make a breathtaking move in the slot, too. They've got perhaps the best TEAM cycle-game of any team in the NHL (Vancouver has the Sedins that do it better, but LA has FOUR LINES that can cycle the puck down low like demons). They have to worry about that same "exhale factor" I talked about for Phoenix, but their run hasn't been quite the Cinderella story that Phoenix's has been. Yeah, they're maybe a year ahead of schedule according to some pundits, but this team was called "the sexy pick" to make the playoffs before the season started. In another words, they're out of nowhere, but not out of NOWHERE.

Potential playoff match-ups: Phoenix, Vancouver, San Jose
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Vancouver
(Some people will think I'm insane for saying the Kings want to play the Sharks, but hear me out here. If the Kings do in fact play San Jose in the first round, it will be because, barring a total meltdown by the Kings, the Sharks lost out the division to Phoenix and fell into that 4-5 hole with them. That's a wounded animal already. The Kings also play the exact kind of hockey that wins in the playoffs, and the exact kind of hockey the Sharks seem to shy away from too often: that is to say, gritty, dig-the-puck-out-of-the-corners hockey. They've got a good record against them in the regular season, including scoring 7 goals against them twice, once in their own building. Yeah, I'd favor the Kings in that match-up. The Canucks, on the other hand, have had the Kings' number all season, so avoiding falling into 6th and having to deal with them in the first-round is really, really important for them.)


6th place: Colorado Avalanche
(41-25-7, 89 points, 23-11-2 at home, 18-14-5 on the road, 6th in Offense, 11th in Defense)
Pre-season pick: Misses the playoffs
High: Second-round exit
Low: First-round exit

Avs fans will probably cry out that I'm not giving enough respect to their team, and they might have a case. They do have some pretty good numbers in the two stat categories; they just barely miss being top-10 in both of them. What stops and gives me concern for the Avalanche's playoff hopes are three things: the aforementioned "exhale factor" we talked about for the Coyotes, as the Avs were also picked to miss the playoffs and probably used that as motivation all season long. Secondly, the overwhelming youth of this team has to be a concern. So much of the Avs have never gotten in done in the playoffs before, including their netminder Craig Anderson. You could say the same about the Kings and their own netminder, but they have more of a veteran presence than the Avs do to go along with all that youth.

Finally, the Avs' road record is cause for great concern considering they will almost certainly not have home-ice advantage in the first round and throughout the playoffs. The Avs are only 4 games above .500 on the road, and that kind of play isn't good enough in a Conference loaded with teams who are much, much better road teams. I think that with some bounces they could win their first-round series, but I wouldn't favor them to do it in any stretch of the imagination, and I definitely can't see them getting any farther than the second round. Still a hell of a story, though.

Potential playoff match-ups: Vancouver, San Jose, Phoenix
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Vancouver
(Unfortunately for the Avs, the team they're currently slated to play in the first round is the Canucks, who are a dominating 4-1-0 against them this season. If they fall back into 7th with San Jose at 2nd or climb into 5th with the Sharks falling to 4th, that will be a much better match-up for them, as the Avs have played the Sharks well all-season, including an opening night win.)


7th Place: Nashville Predators
(42-27-5, 89 points, 21-13-2 at home, 21-14-3 on the road, 14th in Offense, 16th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Playoff bubble, probably out of it
High: Second-round exit
Low: First-round exit

The Predators are another surprising story in a year full of them in the Western conference. This is a budget team that year after year manages to stay consistently around the bubble, and this year they're in even better shape than usual to make the playoffs after missing last year. The Preds' were always a good defensive team (and at 16th they're probably having a bit of a down year for that, oddly enough), but their 14th-ranked offense is nothing short of a huge shocker. They're getting contributions up-and-down their line-up, and their dynamic, high-scoring blueline is a big factor in their success.

Of the three teams that I'm picking to finish out of the playoffs by the second-round (Phoenix, Colorado, and the Preds), the Predators have probably the biggest chance of proving me wrong. They've got that dynamic back-end lead by Olympians Shea Weber (Canada) & Ryan Suter (US), they've got some of the most underrated goaltending in the league from both Pekka Rinne & Dan Ellis, and they've got some decent forwards who play gritty, playoff-style hockey (Arnott, Dumont, Tootoo, etc.) I still can't see them getting past the second round and it will be enough of a struggle to make it past the first, but who knows.

Potential playoff match-ups: San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Chicago
(The Predators haven't played their Central rival Blackhawks very well at all this season, so they want to avoid that match-up if at all possible. They've had pretty good showings against both the Sharks & Canucks all season, but I'm still going with San Jose as their "want to play" just because I think all of the lower seeds probably want to play the Sharks if they can help it.)


8th place: Detroit Red Wings
(37-23-13, 87 points, 21-10-5 at home, 16-13-8 on the road, 15th in Offense, 8th in Defense)
Pre-Season Pick: Dark Horse
High: Conference final
Low: First-round exit

Ah yes, we finally make it to the elephant in the proverbial room that is the NHL playoffs. No one wants to play these Red Wings in the first-round. The only reason they're sitting so low in the West is because of their incredible streak of injuries earlier in the season: now that they're finally healthy again, they've been on an absolute tear since the Olympic break, to the tune of 8-2-1. But saying that this is the same team that went to the Cup finals two years in a row now is a little bit of an over exaggeration. The fact is, they're still missing key guys on offense (Hossa to the Hawks, Samuelssson to the Canucks, Hudler to the KHL) and they're going with a rookie in goal instead of Chris Osgood, whose game has finally appeared to fall off once and for all this season. They've made up for their decrease in offensive production by climbing up to having the 8th-best defense in the league, which is up significantly from a poor defensive season last year.

It's also worth pointing out that the Wings, along with the Penguins, have played more hockey than any other team in going to those back-to-back Cup Finals. While all those injuries may have actually helped the Red Wings by giving their key players some rest, all that still tends to add up, especially once you get back into the post-season grind. Along with their lackluster road record, that's why I can't see the Wings getting farther than the Conference final this year. They also have the potential to be eliminated in the first-round, like any other lower seed. Still, it won't be an easy out for any of the high seeds, by any stretch, and you can bet none of them will be happy to draw the Red Wings in the first round.

Potential playoff match-ups: Chicago, San Jose, Vancouver
Wants to play: San Jose
Wants to avoid: Chicago
(I honestly think Detroit would be comfortable playing any of these three teams in the first round, but of the three they've had their most success this season against the Sharks. Like I said before, even when they were suffering from all their injuries, they still went into San Jose and won. There's something about the Red Wings that just seem to scare the crap out of the Sharks. Of the other two, the Red Wings have a 2-2-1 record against Chicago, so that's probably not the best match-up for them. But don't get me wrong, no one in Chicago will be happy about that match-up should it come to fruition.)


Alright folks, that will *finally* do it for this very, very long blog. I'll be back at some point, maybe tonight or maybe tomorrow (since it's a 3-game schedule so once again not much of a point in doing a Today's Games to Watch) to break down the Eastern conference. Until then, try to enjoy the hockey we've got left and keep in mind, the playoffs are right around the corner!